I thought you meant fluffing was not to consider, which is obviously wrong. I wasn’t calling you dumb or anything like that, sorry if that’s what I appeared to do.
Same, Erika’s flip really surprised me. And yes, it’s pretty hard to imagine two people out there being scum… hence why I’m working strictly with PoE.
^^^^
I currently am paranoid of Andres having pocketed us all, probably due to PTSD from that game’s LYLO: https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/threads/26082?p=4003257&viewfull=1#post4003257
SilverKeith had pocketed everyone by acting pretty towny, active and solvy all game long, and ended up completely carrying his scum team.
Because I don’t think Spak’s tone comes from scum. He expresses my exact thought process about Erika: who else is scum if she’s not? Erika + YBW made sense. Now, nothing really makes sense. This implies a town!Spak PoV.
And I don’t think Martin is scum either, with his reevaluation of me and his constant hunt for tells related to others being the first, second or last killer.
I’d definetly execute YBW first, but then, we may have to consider… all possibilities.
Or maybe I’m just crazy paranoid and should be ignored lol.
Wasn’t trying too hard to attack you but I’m not gonna let you confirm yourself as town. Act town and then I’ll townread you. Simple as that
If there is going to be a wagon on me I’d like my counter wagon to be Spak, as they are the person I scumread the most.
Mainly just the most amount of things that have “caught my eye”
Okay, I’ve put it off long enough but deadline’s in like 6-ish(?) hours so I’ll make myself some hot chocolate and try to figure this out… Figuring ties between slots aren’t gonna help (aside from looking for people gunning for theorized K2s over theorized K3s (since K3 needs K2 to be dead to win)).
ISO on YBW from D3 hasn’t changed, so reference that if you want to see my opinion on the slot. I’ll start with Andres; I’ll be around, but you’ll probably have to @ me if you wanna talk. I’ll probably be scrolled up way too far to see new messages.
Summary of Andres (comments will be [ ]; summary afterwards)
So early on, Andres begins voicing his opinion on being against conversation regarding Specialists (around #118) [worth noting that up to this point, the talk has been purely mechanical]. He calls Phone killer in #129, on the grounds of thinking carefully about who Specialist is (suspects Sam of the same thing [and he was right about PR in both cases]). He said how he’d play if he were killer (#131), which is NAI alone but shows me he’s approaching the game with a good scumhunting mentality.
His stated methodology at this point in the game is to try to not hit PRs (#134-143). [I still think that trying to publicly determine this before choosing wagons at EoD is still increasing the Spec’s chance of dying via PoE, since killers would have no reason to shoot outside of suspected PRs w/ Spec alive. I also question this methodology when we only really have 3 chances to hit scum, but am not sure that scum would be so blatant as to suggest it].
He calls out Phone blowing the vote out of proportion [I didn’t read it as such at the time iirc, but he was clearly right], and then gets frustrated with Sam’s vote on him (and her implication that she’s not spec). He tries to push her [in-line with his stated strategy, so I’m starting to think that he’s not exploiting it as an investigative tool], and gets shut down by Sam, Phone, and myself [although I misread what he meant, so most of the squabbling with me is due to my incompetence lol].
Thread’s fairly unanimously against him now, and he’s still digging in [I think anyone but Spec digs in here with his stance, so NAI]; next group of posts is further pushing Sam for claiming not Spec [no alignment could’ve known that was false at this point]. He puts forward the idea of voting for kill order [rallying town; it’d be important to know order later lategame if Spec was dead and we got flips w/ no more info]. He votes for Choice 3. He’s then on the Benedict wagon [wagon analysis is garbage in this mode imo; trying to connect scumteam is no use if they don’t know who the scumteam is lol]. EoD.
He calls out Sam’s sudden swap to being suspicious of Phone at the start of D2, and believes the Spec claim. He votes YBW since he thinks that the person trumping Advisor would benefit from offing him later [a risky strat imo since town would no longer have majority if a NK happened, but it could also have given Town one more guess]. He addresses my just-stated concern in #579, which looks really transparent imo. He eventually just caves to the Phone wagon since nobody’s really considering anything else. EoD.
At the start of D3 while addressing Sam (#672), he says that the chance of YBW killer is lower now than it was before since Erika claimed she was blocking YBW and he said nothing [although that doesn’t absolve YBW of K3]. He then provides to do a lot of theorycrafting revolving around scum!Erika [could be to mislead anyone re-reading him down the road, but it looks like he’s actually trying to figure the game imo], and does an ISO of every remaining slot [eventually landing on me as K3, but I won’t hold it against him :P].
His scum->town list as of #690 is Spak->Luft->YBW [RIP Martin lol]. After someone pointed out he forgot someone, Martin was added right between Luft and YBW. Erika vote. He and Erika go back and forth for a while; he goes through the implications of a stalled shot, and eventually decides it’s not feasible before doubling down on Erika scum. [His thought process throughout this section is fleshed-out and transparent enough that I believe he’s not K2; his thought process match up with the end result, whereas that obviously wouldn’t be the case for the person who stalled the shot.]
#774 (and #672) appear to be Andres’ primary reasoning for believing in town!YBW. [These are actually super solid imo, and I didn’t pick up on this first time around. I agree that YBW K2 is extremely unlikely (he has no reason to not go for a NK on Sam if he’s K2; it’d clear him the rest of the game if he killed her there), but I think the probability of YBW scum in general isn’t changed by that, since his play still points to an Indy alignment imo. For all we know, K2 could’ve been trying to get full kill control through the stall]. EoD.
Andres tries to analyze the shot by suggesting someone TR’d by Spec would’ve targeted someone else [I’m not sure I agree, but it’s a super interesting thought regardless; he’s still trying to openly conceptualize how he’d play killer, which gives me a townfeel]. Andres suggests one of Luft/Martin is scum in #891/892 [considering how this ISO is going, I’m heavily suspecting that too unless Andres is playing out of his mind], and looks to have landed on me as today’s pick.
All in all, I’m pretty sure this slot is town. His play has been consistently town-sided (aside from the stated strat D1, which I still disagree with…), he’s had no reason to play this hard if he was scum considering thread activity, and he’s genuinely processing through how scum would play the game to inform his decisions. I disagree with his final conclusion (obviously), but I can clearly follow his reasoning.
Holy crap that took two hours lol. I’m gonna go get a new cup of hot chocolate and some fresh air.
Because their play doesn’t look to come from a town place. They’re making minimal effort, don’t seem to have that much interest in finding killers, and they don’t really have opinions (which helps keep off people’s radar as priority NKs). The fact that they’re probably not K2 doesn’t absolve them of being K3. As I stated in the above post, K2 would have reason to off K3 (so they’ve have sole kill power and not have to worry about getting NK’d). So the fact that he was possibly being framed by K2 is NIA imo.
Normally I’d say we hold off on YBW until later in case K3 is revealed and we could clear the slot, but he’s the only person I’m (at least decently) confident is scum and it’d be stupid to look anywhere else at LyLo.
(Also, I’ll be doing Martin/Luft together because at least one of them have to be scum by PoE)
This is good.
I already townread Andre but I do like that you still ISOd them.
I think now I’d rather have martin die than you, if I get to choose my counter wagon.
There is still the possibility that you’re scum, but I actually like that ISO and would rather have martin over you now.
(also you can quote stuff on this site, don’t have to link to the post)
I also still don’t like Martin pointing out their own townslip
and it like isn’t even a townslip?
everybody can fake thinking they’re town. Thats nowhere near a “townslip”
alright I can’t be here for eod which is in like 2~ hours so I’ll just vote martin and leave
I hope this is right
VOTE: MartinGG99
You’re over-reacting and quite frankly failing to take the pragmatic evaluation that obviously I’m not “proven” anything like that to this.
My connation and beliefs can be inferred as suggesting that I believe that it should be a reason to town-read me.
Besides, I can’t recall the last time a wolf just goes out and says “hey this could be a way to town-read me” out in public. It doesn’t happen as often one might think. And that’s along-side with my attempts at solving the game.
Who wants to bet Luft just “forgot” about voting at EoD (which is in ~1 hour and 20 minutes I think)
Then please vote him
So Luft enters the game at #67; [rightly] gets on Sam for giving me townie points for being nice, and votes GG back. [I don’t think this vote should be counted as too weighty because it was still around RVS]. He then posts a jam by James Brown, and then goes on to post #69. This is where he says he’s completely against discussing the Specialist in general [which was discussing purely mechanics], and suggests that the Specialist WIFOMs his way out of kills and crumb actions.
[#69 seems to deviate from the actual point of conversation. We were talking about how the killer could effectively use their abilities (since there are newer players here and we were still trying to get out of RVS), and I think Luft just misread it given his #223:]
[Not sure how he could’ve misread it like that, but I’m also confused by the whole “fact that he knows his own role was first in the list” part. I didn’t think killers got kill order, but can’t tell if this is a scumslip or a townslip because I don’t know if Seth forgot to mention it in the rules or if Luft was just wrong lol.]
In #225, he responds to GG, and confirms that the vote was partly RVS. [I honestly like this part; he reveals a little bit about how he plays, and reads her reaction to the vote. Seems like he’s trying to legit figure out if her reaction was natural for town].
Martin comes in on #337; IRL stuff apparently made activity a bit spotty D1 [but that shouldn’t count against him imo]. In #341, he says that heart rate is the most important ability (at least early) from his perspective [even if it’s a check that’s wrong a third of the time; I guess you could check two nights in a row? That seems like a high cost investigative when you still get info and a possible save from a RB, though].
#344 he votes Luft [seems like an overreaction to an RVS vote, but I dunno if Martin read it as still being RVS. With that said, I don’t think anyone should be taking such a hardline stance against a post #67. It kinda just looks like he thought he needed content out-of-the-gate.] He continues to push against Luft, stating that Luft’s #223 is bad [which I mostly agree with] and he doesn’t think I’ll change his mind (#353) [which I feel like a townie would be open to].
In #362, Martin says that he needs to see more from Benedict before making a decision on him so he’s a null for now [we’ll keep that in mind when we see where he ends up on the wagon], and goes on to ISO Phone to give him town lean (#362). He posts an early readlist at #370 [it’s wrong on at least one count so far, but also helpful to see his decision making process].
He continues to talk about the Spec abilities w/ Sam [I agree with his #385 that at that point, we had fairly exhaustively discussed the topic. People would have a good idea of what they could do regardless of experience, and we were very out of RVS by then]. Martin then gets into the discussion of kill order [and suggests the three orders in #392 that Andres started a vote on; this move couldn’t have benefitted killers as a whole, and was a nice piece of theorycrafting on his side].
Post #470 is where Martin shows up again, with a vote on Benedict. [Looking at timestamps between the Benedict read and here, as well as considering the fact that we needed a new wagon pronto, I think this vote was justified. Still wasn’t a fan of the Benedict wagon in general, but we needed an AFK outta here and he made sense.]. Luft still hasn’t shown back up yet. EoD.
Martin comes back into thread pretty early D2 [I like the re-evaluation of #517, but #518 still reads as an unnecessarily hard read given what Luft had posted in-thread to that point]. Luft comes back in #529, and points out why he believes Andres to be town (in how he’s performing analysis on other slots relative to how they treat Spec). [This read is good based on a purely analysis perspective imo, but I still think Andres’ “who isn’t spec” play was dangerous while Spec was alive.]
Luft finally gets around to responding to Martin in #534, saying that it looked like made up content [I feel like his response is townie, and agree that the OG case is kinda absurd on the re-read]. Luft thinks that killer doesn’t rotate in #535 [there’s a chance that he’s trying to fake a townslip here, or an equally likely chance that he just didn’t read the rules lol]. Luft votes Martin in #537 [this isn’t usually the response to a tunnel I like to see (OMGUS doesn’t usually lead to town), but I also don’t agree with the origin of the tunnel so I’m conflicted…]
One sec, I dunno how to save these things for later, so I’ll just post Part I and then respond to modern-day Martin lol.
I was hoping to do that closer to deadline (so I can get everything out in case I die tonight); I’ll vote after I finish the ISO on you/Luft, or whenever 12:00 rolls around if I’m not done by then. But yeah, consider my vote on YBW.
I’m leaning on YBW + Luftwaffle rn tbh.
If they’re killer I hate that I thought of some out-of-game reasons (that I absolutely cannot discuss or hint about, even post-game here) for town-reading their early reactions to me, and that I dismissed my early ping of them.
But hey, at least I landed on the other killer on D1…sort of. This also means my D3 was bad, off the top of my head.
Oh didn’t realize you were still working on posts
Interesting how an ISO doesn’t auto-update with new posts from them…
I made that post while I was still filtering spak’s posts and that one 10m ago didn’t pop up till I left the filter mode.