Fog of War

[Whysper]

Ellibereth ISO

Details

@Ellibereth

Do people wanted washed up Ellibereth or performing Ellibereth.
I’ve heard that washed up Ellibereth makes games more enjoyable.

Someone pointed out that this seemed townish. And I suppose this playful attitude does appear that way on the surface. But it could also be a way for scum to excuse “washed up” behavior.

@Ellibereth

btw for the people who don’t know this is the setup used in a video mafia tournament. I think noone here other than me was at all involved with this?

So then there was this mention of how this was based on a tournament. He followed with discussion on percentages for winning with different scenarios, including whether the CM claims D1 or D2.

I started to tinfoil that this could be an attempt to push the wrong path for town since only he seemed to have the calculations and the knowledge about the tournament. However, as I’ve considered this a bit more, it seems like an awful lot of work with risk of being found out to go down this path. He even admits to some mistakes in his recollection after redoing the calculations.

If he was scum and really had this insight about the tournament, he would probably just keep it to himself and just push for the optimum scum path in other ways.

Conclusion: Null to possible town lean

[Whysper]

Okay, I need to work on some other stuff first. I’ll see about coming back later for more ISOs.

[tn5421 (Neopolitan)]

Now with an updated understanding of how the game works, let us commence with even more setup spec

iMaGiNe RuNnInG a FlIpLeSs GaMe ThO

8 - 6/2
case: vt yeeted, mafia kill vt, doc protects
outcome: enter day 2 at 5/2 ratio
analysis: 1ml

case: vt yeeted, mafia kill vt, doc doesnt protect
outcome: enter day 2 at 4/2 ratio
analysis: day 2 mylo

case: doc yeeted, doc kill vt, mafia ?dont get to act?
outcome: enter day 2 at 4/2 ratio
analysis: day 2 mylo, I believe this to be the correct interpretation of the rules. “Only one power used per game” and Medic power seem to imply town power takes precedence.

case: doc yeeted, doc kill vt, mafia get to kill
outcome: enter day 2 at 3/2 ratio
analysis: day 2 lylo, rules imply only one power can be used n1, but this does not totally exclude the use of a faction kill.

case: doc yeeted, doc kill mafia, ?mafia doesn’t get to kill AT ALL despite role pm?
outcome: enter day 2 at 5/1 ratio
analysis: 2ml, ideal conditions

case: doc yeeted, doc kills mafia, ?mafia gets one kill?
outcome: enter day 2 at 4/1 ratio
analysis: 1ml

case: doc yeeted, doc kills mafia, ?mafia gets two rules due to shady interpretation of “one power used per game”?
outcome: enter day 2 at 3/1 ratio
analysis: day 2 mylo, will blacklist the mod if this is the case, because making the setup work like this would be fucking retarded

In conclusion, this setup is fucking stupid, especially since it’s flipless.
Why not literally just host mountainous instead?

[tn5421 (Neopolitan)]

Elli: if elli does town stuff, elli is town.
if elli is alive day 3, elli is scum
if elli does not sufficiently town by day 2, elli is scum

I have concerns but I’ll make a seperate post for them.

Elli is town, for now.

Whysper: honestly, i don’t fuckin know. reading people im unfamiliar with is a chore and a half.
What I do know is that she has posted more than the rest of the game has so far.
She is also newb-telling a lot. Claims to have a few ?months? of experience elsewhere.
She seems intersted in solving the game and finding scum, and is already putting in work.
However, I am paranoid that, aside from me, she has picked low post count people to post reads on.

Whysper is a lean-town.

JakeTheWolfie: Not enough information. One bad take (#89) does not a mafia make.

JakeTheWolfie is null

DoggoPlays: Only has one post of relevance out of 5 total. Never trust a player’s self meta.
Feels scummy, but might not be scum.

DoggoPlays is lean-scum.

Andres: Came in scummy right off the bat, only major post is meta on another player.
I’m not a fan on his approach to the game.

Andres is lean-scum

ActionDan: Disclaimer - my read accuracy on ActionDan is, at best, =rand.
His interactions with Elli seem town. I’m trusting my gut here.

ActionDan is prob-town.

Breshke: Newb player. I have mixed feelings about their posts.

Breshke is null, for now

[tn5421 (Neopolitan)]

@Ellibereth

Do people wanted washed up Ellibereth or performing Ellibereth.
I’ve heard that washed up Ellibereth makes games more enjoyable.

This post gives me townvibes.

@Ellibereth

If I remember correctly in a vacuum the CM should save anyone else that gets NK’d but let themselves die and shoot if they’re the one NK’d.

Can’t say I disagree with this. But because of this, I don’t think CM should claim at all.

@Ellibereth

okay i found the math, purely probaistically CM not claiming d1 and always claiming d2 vs always claiming d1 gives town a 3% edge.

I think some people thought the 3% was negligible enough that it could be compensated by the reads advantage of being given a D1 IC.

I don’t think CM claiming d1 is optimal. Of course, that really depends on who got the role, but getting the CM killed night 1 is a good way to
gamethrow
And I really don’t think we want that. Lord help us if CM shoots town.

@Ellibereth

@ActionDan we probably should have lied about the numbers and said CC’ing was optimal whoops. I’ll pretend that was my initial plan. I’m actually washed up.

This post in particular is doing me a concern.
It’s less that you’re “washed up” and more that you’re playing while on meds, I think.

[Whysper]

@tn5421

However, I am paranoid that, aside from me, she has picked low post count people to post reads on.

Haha, actually if you look at the post counts, the 3 I picked happen to be the top 3 not including me. Well, Breshke is tied with ActionDan, who I think I’ll do next when I get a chance. Just that there are so many low post counts.

[Whysper]

Thanks for giving your reads. I hope that others will follow suit so that we can actually get this game going in earnest.

[tn5421 (Neopolitan)]

How is Breshke tied with ActionDan in your eyes?

[Whysper]

I meant tied in post count.

[Whysper]

They both have 9 posts.

[Whysper]

[Whysper]

ActionDan ISO

Details

@ActionDan

@Ellibereth

Do people wanted washed up Ellibereth or performing Ellibereth.
I’ve heard that washed up Ellibereth makes games more enjoyable.

just from saying this you’re (probably) already town

ActionDan enters the thread with a read, so this looks good. And I assume he knows Elli well enough to base this on meta and tone.

Later he questions Elli’s reasoning/logic on CM claiming.

@ActionDan

Alright, why is mafia following through with the CC better than simply not doing that.

He doesn’t just question once but multiple times to get things cleared up. So on the surface, he does want to figure it out. Though of course, scum would also be interested in figuring out the optimum play, so maybe this questioning is NAI.

I’m surprised that ActionDan hasn’t interacted more with others. I was under the impression that he’s one of the more skilled players. I’m hoping to see more “action” from him soon. So for now, I think I need to leave him at Null.

Conclusion: Null

[Ellibereth (Elli)]

@Whysper

I’m wondering how you came up with these percentages. Did you do the calculations yourself, or did you find them somewhere? Can anyone confirm these?

Me and the creator of the setup both did them independently and got the same results. You’re free to do so independently to verify.

[Ellibereth (Elli)]

Anyway I think the game is basically over so I’m going to just accelerate it since the limiting factor is just time at this point.

Claiming not combat medic.

[Ellibereth (Elli)]

@tn5421 don’t call things retarded please ty.

The setup is fine and we can chat about it later, several people have worked on it for a long period of time and it’s been tested well over a hundred times.

[Ellibereth (Elli)]

the scummiest thing I did this game was not lying about the numbers given this particular set of people.
Game was basically over if I did kekerino.

[Ellibereth (Elli)]

4 town is auto btw so can CM just claim already ty. Several people have already shifted the probabilities by explicitly or implicitly claiming not CM which takes away the 3% edge.

[tn5421 (Neopolitan)]

this setup is like
lets take things nobody likes about mountainous
lets take things nobody likes about diffusion of power
no flips. bah

[tn5421 (Neopolitan)]

VOTE: Ellibereth

[tn5421 (Neopolitan)]

I’m pretty sure you can independently figure out why #136 was scummy.