Elli how can the setup be fine and then you think you have auto?
4 town = auto isn’t a setup issue.
actually there are interesting arguments that it might be but that falls into the camp of philosophical issues with mafia as a well designed game etc.etc.
Why wpuld you want CM to claim though you get two confirms if they don’t and if we don’t yEet scum im not following the logic
it’s 3% edge for them to not claim assuming everything else is random. I’ve already ruined that by claiming not CM and jebaiting several people into implicitly not claiming CM so it’s become negative probability to not claim.
4 confirms d1 is auto, we’re winning d1 it doesn’t matter. Whether the CM choose to self save or shoot within the pool doesn’t particularly matter either once you’re at 4.
anyway I’m not going to answer any more questions. There are some people here who should be making my life easier. Please do so.
I still disagree. I understand that a 4 town is auto but its flipless. CM claiming makes you lose the chance of having two confirmed D2.
CM claims get shot at night and either vengeful shoots giving you no confirmed tomorrow or saves themselves giving you 1 confirmed. I dont see the net positive
don’t need to keep talking about it but that’s where I stand atm
I have 0 reads at the moment over than whypser town but think that’s for not great reasons
Nah the more I think about it the more I realise best result for scum is to kill the CM first night
VOTE: Ellibereth
Townlean on tn5421 because my logic is just their logic
smells like bullshit to me. all you did was narrow the scum yeet pool as far as im concerned
there is one thing elli could do to prove townhood, and that’s post some fire reads
im going to bed, will check in again tomorrow
Votecount as of post #152
Ellibereth (2): tn5421, Breshke
DoggoPlays (1): Andresvmb
Not Voting (5): ActionDan, Ellibereth, Whysper, DoggoPlays, JakeTheWolfie
stop thinking and do the math, the max benefit is 3% which is already diluted.
tbh you thinking I’m mafia d1 in a vacuum means im above rand town. 
anyway we kill in the pool breshke/doggo/jake/andres in any order and the game should be over 
You guys will probably want to kill me too so someone in there should just claim combat medic if they are and we can swap me in instead of them.
actually there’s your stunning deal! If one of breshke/doggo/jake/andres claims CM and isn’t CC’d I agree I should be killed D1. I’ll be confirmed town which is ideal then.
Yes, this is exactly my thinking as well on the CM claim issue. I think the CM should only claim D1 if they are getting voted on. Or if scum tries to claim, then they need to CC.
Even though I don’t agree with Elli on the CM claim issue, I don’t see him being scum. I think he’s just town and firmly believes in his probabilities. I admit that I’m not good at calculating probabilities and couldn’t figure out how he did the calculations. Though I still find it odd that he’s insistent on D1 claim when his numbers also show there’s no real benefit for D1 claim over D2 claim. The D1 claim is only good if scum CCs, which they would be silly to do now that we’ve discussed what would happen.
Okay, so basically the numbers show that D1 and D2 claim are mostly equal as far as probabilities. So then why are you still insistent on D1 claim over D2 claim? The logic of waiting for a D2 claim and having possibly 2 town reads seems worth going for. What are you saying is the benefit of a D1 claim?