This has got to be incorrect, for so many reasons. I’ll pretend you didn’t say that.
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nah it’s correct.
Alright, why is mafia following through with the CC better than simply not doing that.
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i’ll redo the math but it became obvious over the tournament that maf has to cc the d1 cm claim.
I am curious, though I cannot see how that could ever work in their favor.
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If they do CC, we would only ever know that we exed the CM if they decided to no-kill. This puts the Mafia at an advantage, since they would now have a 1-shot vengeful kill the next time one of them is exed, without fear that the CM might heal their kill target first.
I do not understand what you mean. If the CM is ever killed first by vote/kill they simply shoot the CCing mafia.
Oh man, I can’t believe I completely glossed over the flipless stuff in the OP. That does make things harder. Now I understand why this is called Fog of War. Haha. 
Yeah, exactly. This is what I was thinking too, so I can’t understand how scum would be advantaged by CC’ing.
If you mean why would the CM ever decide to die from the NK in order to take the venge shot, I agree. I can’t see this ever being advantageous. Actually same with not saving town from NK. Seems like CM should always save town from NK instead of letting them die and also letting scum still have their power.
if the CM is claimed protecting and choosing to shoot are probabilistically equivalent.
If I remember correctly in a vacuum the CM should save anyone else that gets NK’d but let themselves die and shoot if they’re the one NK’d.
okay i found the math, purely probaistically CM not claiming d1 and always claiming d2 vs always claiming d1 gives town a 3% edge.
I think some people thought the 3% was negligible enough that it could be compensated by the reads advantage of being given a D1 IC.
I’m in the camp that if the CM isn’t in the set of people that have high polarity they should just claim and the psychological comfort should compensate for the 3%.
I missed this.
Someone else can explain since if I did my american sized ego will get me deported.
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Hmmm, not sure if I understand all this. Does this also take into account the other part you mentioned about mafia CCing? So if CM does claim D1, is mafia just going to CC, and how do we handle that?
Well, I understand the slang “washed up” itself. But I’m curious how this would play out in your style.
that’s just 46.7 which is a humongous improvement
You’re basically choosing whether you want to play with a weighted dice or a fair dice. 
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for reference CM claims D1 no CC is 31%, CM claims D1 CC is 46.7% (My bad on that dan I hallucinated), CM claims d2 is 34%.
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