Andreés is town, M2H is town.
I think StarV is the best bet for scum. There’s been an overconfidence with his read on me that’s unnatural. And all he’s done is repeat it.
I don’t think StarV and Tn are scum together. And out of Tommy and Nanook I think Nanook is more likely. But that’s a lot harder to sus out
I’m going to sleep on this.
I am not going to say that this game is outside of Nanook’s Scum Range. But it would be spectacular to never have been on Dusk the entirety of D1, or DS (or me even!) and yet still have gotten Town lynched. Like if we listen to him purely D1, he’s narrowed it down to a 50/50 shot including himself. The fact that you’re placing him as more likely Scum than Tommy is a bit shocking to me.
You have me as Town, and M2H as Town. Nanook had… Dusk as Town, DS as Town, was not interested in lynching me and said that Dusk/Me was T/T, and had M2H as Town D1. Like how can you see that and agree with some of his most important reads and have him more likely Scum than Tommy? Like I can’t make sense of that.
Tommy even pushed DS hard and tried to move the wagon away from Dusk. If you’re squinting hard enough that could be Scum trying to get massive Town cred when Dusk flips Town.
Sure Tn and StarV are maybe not Scum together. But they are both infinitely more likely in this game state to be Scum than Nanook, I think.
tbh lets not forget the nk on ds had to have come from somebody who either
so who would fall for ds being the cop or would think ds was still obvtown?
Well I never outted that my read on DS had flipped on its head. And neither did Nanook I don’t think. Tommy was the only one shouting particularly hard that DS was Scum, and Dusk’s opinion was irrelevant since he was being lynched. So 2. is more likely than 1. TN fits 1 most neatly, but Nanook’s point about the Scum Team probably not posting about it directly in thread I agree with. Nanook does not fit 1 or 2.
I just… I don’t know that trying to figure out the NK gets us far. It just seems like one of those shots meant to confuse the hell out of people.
I’m not sure what this is referring to, but I thought DS was probably VT most of yesterday, publicly expressed that I didn’t want to kill him multiple times, and dont recall flipping on that, publicly or otherwise? I’m just sort of genuinely confused at this, am I missing something?
I do agree that you can’t necessarily gauge who might’ve made a NK based off in thread stuff though, any halfway passable scum can compartmentalize and say one thing in thread do another. You’re also leaving out option 4, M2–scum decided to ignore cop hunting and make a kill to fuck with town. That’s very very very unlikely but hey, if we’re getting into conspiracy theories already, why not go full fucking bore.
Serious NK analysis should probably be saved for tomorrow tbh. Even then it’s dicey but basing reads off a single NK is essentially throwing quarters into a puddle and hoping the lady of the lake hands you a magic sword.
Yeah which is why I am saying 1 definitely does not apply to you. Like you clearly did not believe that DS was the Cop, and I thought it was genuine. And I do not think that you would have concluded that the game would not have swung heavily against DS if he were still here. So I think that 2. does not fit you either.
I am partly arguing that someone who did not express strong opinions about DS (and is part of the Scum Team) might have concluded that DS would not get lynched easily D2 seeing that you and I both agreed that DS was Town and had not changed our minds. This is colored by my perception that you are Town but whatever.
So that’s probably what drove the NK more than Cop hunting. I seriously doubt anyone bought DS’ completely ridiculous attempt at Cop cover haha
But that’s sheer speculation and I am not relying on this for anything right now.
You can have good reads as scum when you know people are town! And Nanook’s vote is on me atm so excuse me if that doesn’t hold up currently.
Now. I don’t think Nanook’s is overtly scummy nor is there any case I could make that would be strong. But when looking back at his stances D1 and his stances D2 you’ll notice that outside of town-reading DS/Dusk/M2H his stances on everyone else are much less solid without clear scumreads. The bulk of his posting focused on mediating between townreads. And today? Well he has me as a P.O.E read but as far as I can tell its less that I’m scum and more that its a correct play to lynch me in his mind, and I’m not quite sure why that is. VCA? not really that relevant when I wasn’t even here EOD and didn’t dissect Dusk’s play at the time or engage with it. That’s very poor and narrow-minded for a townie Day 2.
It’d be easy to say we should lynch tommy first because he’s voted erratically or what have you but to my mind I can see Nanook’s play fitting a scum pattern.
That’s my bit on Nanook. From a holistic standpoint, I’m more concerned about Tn/StarV. I don’t think either has been playing reasonably this game, and unlike nanook this is the 2nd time they’re participating in a mislynch. I have to iso them some more and think more critically to make up my mind. As I said before though, I lean StarV as most likely scum for what looks like complete abandon of reason throughout the game.
I mean, I did try to make it sort of look like maybe DS was the cop, but yeah, if we’re being honest probably didn’t work and it’s just a not paying enough attention or confusion kill.
Finding strong enough townreads to create a narrow POE then getting those townreads to stop bitching at each other is basically how I play the game 90% of the time, so essentially you’re saying Nanook scummy for playing like Nanook. That’s a very strong argument 