Let’s say perfect world your 4 person town group is correct. What if yeet scum today.
Start of n1 its 5v1 as 1 scum kill who then uses power to kill town in your group of 4
Start of day 1 scum kills another in your group of 4. That’s 4 v 1 with 2 alive from your group of 4 and 3 not.
You then have 2 day kills but 3 people outside of your town group still alive so its not an auto win
I disagree whysper. The fact that noone is chiming in to push back on this nonsense other than TN5421 makes me think Elli sees the player list and thinks they can get away with this nonsense.
I think scum is in a really bad position going into tomorrow if they havnt killed the CM and Elli sees it as worthwhile trying to make this play especially if as others has said he has a weak scum game
I agree with this POE other than Breshke, who I still town lean. He’s been consistent in his view that CM shouldn’t claim D1 unless necessary. If he were scum, I think he would have given in by now and just sheeped you.
And yes, if the CM happens to be in this POE and becomes the main wagon, they should claim and we should let them resolve. If there is a CC, then we let them both resolve and the real CM should venge shoot the other (assuming the real CM is targeted for NK). If there was no CC, then the CM should save the NK and then claim D2 and tell the results.
I’ll admit that I tinfoil the same thing originally. And I don’t know Elli personally so can’t say whether he’d be bold enough to do this, but I got the impression this wasn’t likely coming from him.
I definitely don’t want to go along with his plan, but I don’t feel it wise to yeet him or put him high in the POE.
BTW, why is Breshke in your POE?
Additionally, I suppose this means you town lean ActionDan. Why is that?
Consider the difference between why I normally scumread you and why I’m scumreading you now.
I don’t think reasons matter. Regardless I’m warming up to dying D1 just to be confirmed town.
I don’t want to vote you if you’re town, but you are making it hard to believe you are town.
We both know that I normally get mad and vote you because you don’t explain your actions.
You are, in fact, explaining your intent and actions this game, and it is the logic I am taking exception to. You cannot handwave this away as same shit different day.
Talk me through how outing the CM is ideal. ELI5, even.
From my perspective, since this game is flipless we need to give ourselves the maximum possible number of fuckups, unless the CM can be trusted to shoot baddies.
The absolute best case scenario from my point of view is this:
CM is yeeted d1, they shoot mafia, this counts as the one power usage and mafia can’t act, leaving us with 2 yeets before mylo.
OR
CM is yeeted d1, they shoot mafia, mafia gets faction kill but not vengeful since power was used, leaving us with 2 yeets before lylo.
HOWEVER, this relies heavily on the CM not being a
Gamethrower
And that is not something I can trust.
The best scenario that’s impossible to prevent from happening is yeet a scummy player, mafia try to yeet VT, CM does CM thing, then deal with claim/cc shenanigans d2.
Between 2 claims, 1 is guaranteed to be scum. Ensuring we have a ML to play with means we can leisurely yeet both claimants and be sure 1 scum was among them.
Even flipless, mafia NKs will tell us a lot. I believe my plan makes the maximum utility out of the CM with the least risk.
tn why is talking to someone who’s agreed to be killed productive 
Let me just figure out what the best set of instructions going forward will be ty. Focus should be on people who are posting less since some of them aren’t giving me enough to be confident postmortem.
You are under the mistaken impression that your word is universal.
I’ll only need a majority of the survivors, I’ll get there. 
Instead, we could remove scumreads and/or negative town utility players.
The problem with CM outing D1 is that it makes N1 kill prevention impossible, which I believe hurts our chances.
CM outing d1 -> 100% chance they’ll be targeted -> 28.5% standard chance they’ll hit scum w/ venge if that’s how it works -> no need to CC day 2
CM outing d2 -> less than 100% chance they’ll be targeted -> if they aren’t targeted they can prevent kill -> we start d2 from a better place & can force a claim once they’re only a named townie -> if counterclaimed, guaranteed scum yeet in 2 | if not counterclaimed, functionally IC
maybe in the future before we start a game and before alignments go out we can have a webcast where we go over the math/mechanics behind it.
That’d be an idea.
I’d only have to do it once per setup.
tl;dr what you are doing is suboptimal, please listen to reason and join me
wait, im the voice of reason? damn these are good drugs /s
@Ellibereth Why would you opt to intentionally get yourself executed as VT? How can we trust that you aren’t Mafia, and are going to shoot someone?
Having the stuff I write being known to be a from a confirmed-town pov is likely to be sufficiently valuable to be worth it.
If I blow someone up you know i’m mafia and you should be happy lol