I still disagree. I understand that a 4 town is auto but its flipless. CM claiming makes you lose the chance of having two confirmed D2.
CM claims get shot at night and either vengeful shoots giving you no confirmed tomorrow or saves themselves giving you 1 confirmed. I dont see the net positive
don’t need to keep talking about it but that’s where I stand atm
I have 0 reads at the moment over than whypser town but think that’s for not great reasons
Nah the more I think about it the more I realise best result for scum is to kill the CM first night
VOTE: Ellibereth
Townlean on tn5421 because my logic is just their logic
smells like bullshit to me. all you did was narrow the scum yeet pool as far as im concerned
there is one thing elli could do to prove townhood, and that’s post some fire reads
im going to bed, will check in again tomorrow
Ellibereth (2): tn5421, Breshke
DoggoPlays (1): Andresvmb
Not Voting (5): ActionDan, Ellibereth, Whysper, DoggoPlays, JakeTheWolfie
stop thinking and do the math, the max benefit is 3% which is already diluted.
tbh you thinking I’m mafia d1 in a vacuum means im above rand town. 
anyway we kill in the pool breshke/doggo/jake/andres in any order and the game should be over 
You guys will probably want to kill me too so someone in there should just claim combat medic if they are and we can swap me in instead of them.
actually there’s your stunning deal! If one of breshke/doggo/jake/andres claims CM and isn’t CC’d I agree I should be killed D1. I’ll be confirmed town which is ideal then.
Yes, this is exactly my thinking as well on the CM claim issue. I think the CM should only claim D1 if they are getting voted on. Or if scum tries to claim, then they need to CC.
Even though I don’t agree with Elli on the CM claim issue, I don’t see him being scum. I think he’s just town and firmly believes in his probabilities. I admit that I’m not good at calculating probabilities and couldn’t figure out how he did the calculations. Though I still find it odd that he’s insistent on D1 claim when his numbers also show there’s no real benefit for D1 claim over D2 claim. The D1 claim is only good if scum CCs, which they would be silly to do now that we’ve discussed what would happen.
Okay, so basically the numbers show that D1 and D2 claim are mostly equal as far as probabilities. So then why are you still insistent on D1 claim over D2 claim? The logic of waiting for a D2 claim and having possibly 2 town reads seems worth going for. What are you saying is the benefit of a D1 claim?
Let’s say perfect world your 4 person town group is correct. What if yeet scum today.
Start of n1 its 5v1 as 1 scum kill who then uses power to kill town in your group of 4
Start of day 1 scum kills another in your group of 4. That’s 4 v 1 with 2 alive from your group of 4 and 3 not.
You then have 2 day kills but 3 people outside of your town group still alive so its not an auto win
I disagree whysper. The fact that noone is chiming in to push back on this nonsense other than TN5421 makes me think Elli sees the player list and thinks they can get away with this nonsense.
I think scum is in a really bad position going into tomorrow if they havnt killed the CM and Elli sees it as worthwhile trying to make this play especially if as others has said he has a weak scum game
I agree with this POE other than Breshke, who I still town lean. He’s been consistent in his view that CM shouldn’t claim D1 unless necessary. If he were scum, I think he would have given in by now and just sheeped you.
And yes, if the CM happens to be in this POE and becomes the main wagon, they should claim and we should let them resolve. If there is a CC, then we let them both resolve and the real CM should venge shoot the other (assuming the real CM is targeted for NK). If there was no CC, then the CM should save the NK and then claim D2 and tell the results.
I’ll admit that I tinfoil the same thing originally. And I don’t know Elli personally so can’t say whether he’d be bold enough to do this, but I got the impression this wasn’t likely coming from him.
I definitely don’t want to go along with his plan, but I don’t feel it wise to yeet him or put him high in the POE.
BTW, why is Breshke in your POE?