Mafia 451 Draft

@ActionDan @GTacc @ErikaFurudo I need your input here.

Andres says dan very well might be scum but wants to lynch elsewhere firstā€¦ then to bolster his argument he tags dan and asks him what to do. :thonk:

Anyway, I am fairly certain I know who the remaining doctor is, I donā€™t know their alignment and Iā€™m considering outing them them in a plan that either guarantees us that they out themselves as scum if they donā€™t follow the plan or that allows us to likely find scum anyway. Thereā€™s a certain risk of failure if mafia do some weird unexpected shit but I think that unexpected shit hurts them more than not in the long run.

When I said I might have a gamesolve, I meant a mechanical solve. One based on game logic, not one based on reads. Iā€™m still trying to crunch shit and make sure Iā€™m not missing something, and thereā€™s a few pieces that Iā€™m looking for from a few people today to judge the feasibility of this.

I think this is a terrible plan. If it wasnā€™t so transparently bad, I would think it was Scummy. You do realize the other Faith Healer is dead, the Vig has been used, and the Vengeful player was NKā€™ed right? So the ONLY circumstance in which the Faith Healer can be used is for the benefit of Town. So even if it was in the hands of Scum (doubtful), your ā€œplanā€ would ensure that potentially one player does not get NKā€™ed one Night and instead, you focus the shot on one of the few useful PRā€™s left.

If not a different player of course.

Okay sorry Iā€™m around. Watching the uh, Key + Andres vs DS fight made me cringe so hard I just left and when I came back at like 5 AM gmt I realized phase was rip cause modkill.

Super upset about the Key flip tbh, she was my strongest townread, stronger than Tommy was when he was alive. Let me look back at what she said.

I wouldnā€™t call it a fight. I would call it game throwing.

I do stand by my read on you yesterday, I think you and Nuxl could be scum together. Unfort we had a modkilled townie because I think we had a good chance of lynching scum yesterday.

VOTE: Andres

Also iā€™m still unsure about Nuxl, because if heā€™s scum I swear his partners would have tried to get him subbed by now??

BUT M2H DID SAYNO SUBS SO MODKILL.

Nevermind I totally think Nuxl is scum again.

What

So I was thinking ā€œWhy would scum keep an inactive partner? Why not push to sub him?ā€ if Nuxl were scum. But then I was like ā€œWait M2H said no subs, it would result in a modkill if you needed to be subbed.ā€ So I canā€™t rlly clear Nuxl as town for not being subbed yet.

My top town read flipped town, let me now lynch their top town read.

Iā€™m trying to understand this logicā€¦

Please consider that youā€™re saying your top town read was so far off that her top town read is actually scum.

I understand that it doesnā€™t make sense, but townies arenā€™t perfect and her reads could be off. She also expressed doubt. I really see how it odesnā€™t make sense now but I really believe it.

She expressed doubt, not about her top town read.

In simple terms, Andres generally plays / believes people are playing in good faith, I donā€™t think he uses the DS situation as scumā€¦ I guess you can make the argument that it was ā€œforcedā€ on him, but I imagine he would probably mostly afk as scumā€¦

Which brings me to Nuxl

VOTE: Nuxl

I donā€™t think this is the only good vote, but I do think itā€™s a good vote.

I do think Nuxl could flip scum, Iā€™m definitely willing to hop over to that wagon but I wanna see what others think about Andres again today. I REALLY think both could likely be scum together (scum!Andres pulling attention from inactive scum!Nuxl onto town!DS because DS seems to be iffy under pressure.) Correct me if Iā€™m crazy and talking nonsense.

That being said Iā€™m about 75% sure Nuxl is gonna flip scum.

DEPENDING on what Andres says about Nuxl I might change my mind.

Youā€™re going to try to convince me that youā€™re more than 75% certain Andres will flip town?

Now, I know youā€™re any combination of:

  1. Lying
  2. Delusional
  3. Mafia

If youā€™re 70%+ on anyone, you really should lock vote in and never moveā€¦ Soooo Iā€™m inclined to believe youā€™re lying here.