Flip Flappers Mafia [TOWN WIN]

If we have another town power role who wants to Out Today?
I will Protect them tonight and I will probably be the scum kill anyway. :grin::rofl:

I hope Elli is free soon, was my crumb yesterday.

^ Erika picked up on that and then covered it up quickly.
Between her hammering on day one and then not revealing this crumb day two and then me not dying last night I am very convinced Erika is town.

Maybe interpreting Erika wrong, but when she said we should Rand vote and I said why?
She came back with this reply that I thought was a wink that it would lead scum away from my crumb.

Anyway, Town please read and let us know what you think
Scum? DIE!

@ErikaFurudo Erika? Erika? Please come back and Play with us?
I need my belly scratched!
PPPPUuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuurrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

1 Like

Why did you claim? :frowning:
I guess now we know that Elli wasnā€™t tracked n1.
At this point Iā€™m kinda just waiting to see if others show up. Night was super long so I wouldnā€™t be surprised if we need another round of replacements. :confused:

@Urist, even though I disagreed with your position last night, I was not all that upset at you taking a principled stand and essentially blocking (together with Srceenplay) the lynch on Val. The reason? Even though it hurt us not to lynch anybody, lynching Town is certainly more painful. So having more time to think through it is not necessarily the worst decision, especially now that Val has been replaced and we are starting to get some more thoughts from their vantage point. But then you proceeded to vote for a Val lynch. Why? You argued for Val as Town!

And then, without Val saying much more than:

you turned around and, with 15 minutes left, voted for her anyway. I donā€™t understand this progression at all. Can you help me out here? Why the late vote?

Because nolynching is way worse than lynching the villager that multiple people suspect. If we had lynched Val yesterday, even if he flipped town we would have a much better chance at lynching scum today. Instead, today we have to deal with people (cough Elwood cough) who refuse to vote for anyone but Val/Nanook. And if everyone ignores me again and we lynch Nanook today, weā€™re in an even worse position than before.

How do you know Val/Nanook is Town? Because you seem fairly certain that Nanook is Town. Yet you didnt have much to go by when you placed your vote (you admitted so yourself). And clearly sensible people disagree with you? Itā€™s certainly not the gimme you are implying.

And how is it more beneficial to lynch Town than argue against those you think are Scum? Say weā€™re wrong and Nanook is Town and they get lynched with your vote included. Why would we then trust your opinion when you have voted against someone you seemed fairly certain was Town and they flipped Town? Wouldnā€™t we be better off by say us mislynching someone and you not voting against them? Wouldnā€™t you then generate some credibility? In any case, some people are going to not vote with Town because it doesnā€™t fit their interest. So that cannot be your reason to then go and vote someone you see as Town, since Scum will obviously take advantage of that. It doesnā€™t make sense to me that you would look to actively lynch someone you see as Town, and then argue that thatā€™s better than not lynching anybody at all. Lynching Town is literally how we lose. And differentiating peopleā€™s intentions is much harder than looking at their votes.

I still need someone to come here and explain the logic of catspurr claiming what they are at this stage.

They want to remove themselves from the lynch pool.

So now we just lynch urist first.

Lynching town is an important step in lynching scum. This is getting into a mafia theory debate now, but try to think of it this way. If Elwood is scum, what is he going to do today? Thatā€™s right, heā€™s going to yell and scream and do nothing but talk about how fracking scummy Nanook is. And heā€™d get away with that because we didnā€™t lynch anybody yesterday. If we had lynched Val yesterday, then Elwood would be forced to update his reads. We would have gained a lot of insight into Elwoodā€™s alignment based on how he reacted to the Val flip, how he adjusted his reads, etc. etc. And this applies to most of the people who were pushing for Valā€™s lynch yesterday.
Unfortunately, now weā€™re in a situation where scum can do the exact same thing they did yesterday. They are not forced to adapt to a changing environment, so there is much less opportunity for them to make a mistake. This is the situation I wanted to avoid, and this is why I would have been willing to lynch Val yesterday.

Theory discussion aside, what do you think of Nanook? Do you still think heā€™s scum?

Letā€™s go through this from a strategy point of view, and Iā€™ll explain why I think you are wrong.

You seem to be working under the assumption that you can be 100% correct as Town, or that a Town mislynch would more often than not cause Scum to make a mistake and reveal themselves. This is to me the fundamental mistake I think you are making in your analysis, and it could prove devastating (unless thatā€™s the goal of course, or you know something I donā€™t). Say we lynch Nanook, with your vote, and Nanook flips Town (under the logic that a lynch is better than a no lynch). Then that causes some serious outrage, and Elwood (who in this scenario is not NKā€™ed or otherwise eliminated overnight), is targeted because he has been focused on that particular lynch, and enough people are convinced that Elwood actually meant to lynch Town that he gets voted for the next lynch (even though the reasoning for his vote, for arguments sake, made sense). If Elwood flips Town, you have potentially just lost us the game right there. Instead of focusing on how people are looking at the game, how they are voting and why, your intense focus on the outcome of any one lynch (which I admit is important, but wouldnā€™t actually condemn Elwood for example) could generate enough suspicion around Town players that we just straight up lose. I donā€™t have to know Mafia theory to tell you that, strategically, I am much more comfortable simply not voting against those players I view as Town than forcing a lynch to get reads. And besides, Town players will necessarily be a part of a mislynch, since this is majority vote. Are you that certain that you can correctly pinpoint who was wrong and who is Scum?

Throughout, you seem to be suggesting that Elwood is Scum. Otherwise, why call him out like this? Can you explain why you think this, but arenā€™t voting for him?

To answer your question, my view of Nanook has not changed, but I havenā€™t paid much attention to whatā€™s been said today because Iā€™m so confused by your actions.

gg wp mafia. I thought it was questionable to kill off the sk so early, but to have the foresight that town would gamethrow day 2 was pure genius.

I aint read shit, but Cats claim is wither maf rb/jk/doc given the setup so far. Iā€™ll ttyl when Iā€™m not late for work, or not.

putting zero thought into this statement, all scum are off the Val wagon

Oh, am I a lightning rod slot?? Thatā€™s fun!

Andre clearly states here that he believe a lynch,(implied, even of town) is better than no lynch for town. Now he is arguing with Urist that No lynch was better for town???

This, not because I care if I get lynched or not.
But because town has to focus on lynching scum.

You misunderstand my argument completely. Iā€™m chastising Urist for his choice because heā€™s voting against some he views as Town. When voting against someone that you suspect might be scum, the situation is vastly different (and I maintain that such a lynch is better than no lynch). Thatā€™s not what Iā€™m talking about here.