Partition Mafia, OVER

[beeboy (HearthstoneMan3)]

So, my thoughts on set up are:

4 – 3 – 1

All possible combinations scum:

1 – 1 – 0

This is a very conservative approach to playing scum, the scum team is likely to isolate one player for lynch, then continue to make easy plays which doesn’t require them to push for something too hard… I would expect the second split to be a more even distribution with 1-1 again. In this case, I would expect that a player they consider to be strong would be placed in the 1 space.

0 – 1 – 1

This is possibly the worst approach for scum, I don’t really understand why they would ever do this. Let’s put scum in both of the two most likely places to get lynched… You would have to be really cocky in order to pull off this type of move because it doesn’t even make sense. 0 – 2 – 0 is strictly better as it accomplishes the same thing while giving you an out.

1 – 0 – 1

This seems like a near guarantee if the 1 is scum due to what I said above concerning 0 – 1 – 1 making a lynch on the singular player can be very indicative of alignment as it would give us 3 very likely town players in this scenario. Of course, the flip side to that is, if the singular player is town, then we can rinse repeat day 2 with little gained intel.

2 – 0 – 0

I’m not going to say this is a conservative approach, because it puts scum at risk of outright losing the game, but it is a cowardly approach as you avoid both most probable lynches all together. I would expect in this scenario, they would split the townies of the 4 among the other groups in the day 2 partitioning.

0 – 2 – 0

This is a balls of steel type of strategy, which would rely on players within the 4 being willing to self-lynch essentially. You would essentially want all strong players to be outside of your group in this case, which might be what happened in this game, but I’m not convinced that anyone in this game other than @Urist would have any read on me coming in, so it seems unlikely.

Regardless of the configuration, I kind of expect scum to split in future rounds because with fewer players, it doesn’t make sense for scum to risk everything on their buddy’s bluffing ability. Overall, on the first round I don’t think it’s a huge risk for scum to stack 2 in one group on this configuration because the easiest lynch (yet the least likely to flip scum) is the single slot.

It doesn’t actually matter which group gets lynched, as long as 1 scum player is in the group, it is advantage town. Which makes it more likely for scum to double up and/or push for a specific group.

Due to my short analysis of 0 – 2 – 0, I think it’s better if we lynch either the 1 or the 4 ( Sad times for me). I’d like to know other people’s thoughts on this.

This is a post to look busy.

[beeboy (HearthstoneMan3)]

So scum are in StarV and DS I think.
I am fine lynching DS which I originally wasn’t based on setup info and partition info alone but I just don’t like his posts.

Josh is town for mind melding with me on reads really hard.
Chesskid is town because putting himself in a group with me is stupid because he just dies 50% of the time when I just decide to not have time for the game. <- same applies for Josh who also knows me.

[beeboy (HearthstoneMan3)]

If DS is town then NSG could be scum with Starv.
Abstract group distribution like this is something she would prolly do.

[beeboy (HearthstoneMan3)]

Andres is probably town this game.

[Josh]

on one hand this isn’t out of beeboy’s scum range but on the other hand is a kitten, and i like kittens better than mafia so i’m gonna lynch ds

[chesskid3]

.
Chesskid is town because putting himself in a group with me is stupid because he just dies 50% of the time when I just decide to not have time for the game. <- same applies for Josh who also knows me.

This post sucks and is well within anyone’s scum range @Josh because this feels like a scum post

[StarV (NotanAxehole)]

Okay, so I’m sick of waiting for people to post, it sucks to have lurkers in partition mafia, because you can’t just throwaway a vote on someone for inactivity, you’re just stuck because they are part of a partition with other people.

First off, about setup:

DS, Andres, Urist all have posts about the set up, what I would have done, what you would have done. It’s all irrelevant and disingenuous, one thing is clear, the set up was thought through and each one of them are likely (based on what I’m reading for Andres, DS) to have a part in it. I’m not going to exclude myself from that list of players either, but given that I know I am town, it’s irrelevant for my reads.

Alphabetical order on reads:

@andresvmb

Hey all! Good to be back.

I disagree that we have to do anything mechanically (as in nuke A). If anything, destroying group C (which I do realize I’m in) is most likely to get Scum. I say that because people are going to be nervous about eliminating the group that would lose them the game if it does not contain Scum. So your bar to voting there will be slightly higher than for the rest, in my opinion.

I’m leaning against my own group, purely because I think most players would agree that mechanically the group of 3 should be lynched. It’s too easy of an argument if you ask me.

I think this combination of posts is actually terrible and am leaning heavily scum on Andres right now, that and the combination of not throwing his vote shouts scum to me.

@beeboy

Seems town, I like his thought process on his reads.

DS literally scumclaimed

Explain.

I feel like chesskid is getting a free pass with things “he wouldn’t do” leading to people town reading him when I think his play is actually very scummy. He’s kind of throwing his weight around, but not actually putting anything behind it. He’s also kind of active, but not providing any meaningful content. Dodged the only two scum hunting attempts against him and claims other people aren’t scum hunting. Leaning scum on my initial read – but there’s more.

But again, im not arguing for that, im just saying that you never will win day 1 if you lynch me.

> So me and urist are townreads? Why?

I have you as a TR and Urist as a null due to no real input so far.

You as TR because of this post:

> I mean thats a pretty good reason lol.

>

>

>

> Mine is more that your setup spec post was super canned

>

>

>

> But hey since this thread isnt being logical let me toss another potato onto the pile:

>

>

>

> I have it on very good authority that Andres scum wouldn’t put himself in my group 100% and probably?would avoid putting any scum into my group. Andres pls confirmerino

Where I dont think a scum you (having played briefly with you as scum) would both A) say that scum Andres would avoid your group and B) say that scum Andres would also avoid putting scum INTO your group.

In the world of a scum player that is painting yourself into a very limited worldview and I… dont think youre that bad of a scum player? I dont think you would limit yourself in that way at least.

as for saying scum likely is within Andres/Josh/Star - I mean I could have easily thrown the nulls in there but then im saying my POE is like 6/8’s of the game which is just weak.

This post is the only thing that gives me pause on CK, it’s that it doesn’t make sense for DS to be so confident about CK’s alignment in this case. I’m confident however, that if DS flips town, then CK and Andres scum team is very likely (tying into my first point about people conveniently classing CK’s actions).

@DS

I’m making this my priority target for today, the posting is so, why is it me? Well… That’s kind of the point of mafia right?

Overall, I think DS desperately through out some town and neutral reads in order to try to get people off their back, but I think for someone confident about there being a mechanical best option, there should be a vote on the table.

I also recall a post about @urist which I can’t find where DS says if you think this, then you’re mafia and you’re wrong… Which is directly contradictory… Therefore direct admission of guilt.

VOTE: B

Josh

Leaning slightly town, I think his play style is very interesting.

@northsidegal

Leaning scum because there’s been activity in other games, but not here.

@urist

Neutral – usually I can tell if he’s scum based on how good or bad he plays, if he’s town, he’s a better player.

My reads in order of importance:

More Scum

DS

Andres

CK

northsidegal

Urist

Josh

Beeboy

More Town

[chesskid3]

More Scum

DS

Andres

CK

??? Dude i cant with you

[StarV (NotanAxehole)]

Why are you so mad about being 3rd on my scum read list, yet not mad about being 3rd on Josh scum read list?

Just curious. I’m guessing another dodge is in order.

[beeboy (HearthstoneMan3)]

This post sucks and is well within anyone’s scum range @Josh because this feels like a scum post

u suck

[chesskid3]

Josh has me as town but thanks.

Im mad at you because your scumlist doesnt make sense together

[chesskid3]

So I’m pretty much slowly reaching the conclusion that there’s 1 scum in A and 1 in C.

Theres 1 more townie in C…but that townie seems to be scumsiding StarV so… let’s lynch C LOL

[Josh]

correct @ and i think beeboy is scum w somebody in group 3 if DS is town, but DS ain’t town so beeboy gets to be town

[StarV (NotanAxehole)]

Honestly, Chesskid’s reluctance to lynch DS along with the fact that he’s explicitly said that DS should try to get back in the game is really scummy and could be a team.

[Josh]

r u sure kid??

[chesskid3]

Yeah i was busing him but he didnt handle it well so then i coached him in thread and now we gonna win

[chesskid3]

Which part? That you have me as town or about Star being completely wrong town and likely to throw

[Josh]

that i have u as town

[chesskid3]

I mean up to u dude

[chesskid3]

U should tho im obvtown