Matroskha 4: Over!

DS · July 10, 2019, 6:12pm

Yeah why?

Andresvmb · July 10, 2019, 7:00pm

Frankly, I’m fine with the second iteration you proposed. I just think GTacc is Town and would take that to the Bank, and agree on Elli.

You placing yourself next to Elwood means we need to find a way to avoid that though. My 2 cents.

Andresvmb · July 10, 2019, 7:00pm

So maybe switch you and Dan?

Andresvmb · July 10, 2019, 7:05pm

Elwood and Nanook should really not go next to each other. I’m not sure on StarV as a top 2 Town either.

Andresvmb · July 10, 2019, 7:06pm

Anyway, you do you. I would have gone for submitting 3 lists and seeing what people like better. It’s more useful I think.

StarV · July 10, 2019, 7:12pm

Ellibereth:

…e more famous result that a collection of positive trends may end in a negative trend. Or if you consider sets of strategies as portfolios with risk/reward, how it turns out that the highest ev may not be correct in the spectra (google efficient frontier for this one).
the naive way to calculate would be to create a strategy space as town, a strategy space as mafia, and run a monte carlo. You’re looking for equilibria. (good place to start: https://github.com/leepike/theresistance)
Proving a strategy is optimal is a lot more involved (and people looking at balance in mafia as an ev calculation are also wrong but its also widely accepted because it easy and considered a “good enough” approximation a lot of the time). This is just a sample for mafia (https://arxiv.org/pdf/math/0609534.pdf)

I want to be very clear, I’m not talking about the global town winrate, I’m talking about the mission leader win rate, it should be highest if he/she is on the wagon. So if your friends let you do it, why not?

StarV · July 10, 2019, 7:24pm

StarV - Andres - ActionDan - Ellibereth - Nanook - GTacc - Elwood

is my preliminary lineup… There are probably 3 names that could shift, I’m really unsure about the order of my 4-5-6 (not in the order above).

DS · July 10, 2019, 7:38pm

I’d rather crowd source

DS · July 10, 2019, 7:38pm

Not putting yourself in top two what is your order

StarV · July 10, 2019, 7:39pm

I mean, I suppose you want to make some sort of incorrect associative reads off of me?

StarV · July 10, 2019, 7:42pm

Take your pick, swap me for Elli or GTacc

DS · July 10, 2019, 7:48pm

No, I want you to suggest two for the top spot outside of yourself

ActionDan · July 10, 2019, 7:50pm

these town reads on elli are like

waaaaaaht

StarV · July 10, 2019, 8:01pm

I agree

StarV · July 10, 2019, 8:10pm

I gave you my order

StarV · July 10, 2019, 8:53pm

For some reason people are being intentionally bad town.

Ellibereth · July 10, 2019, 8:56pm

@Elwood list?

#hypocrite

Ellibereth · July 10, 2019, 8:59pm

If the algorithm the group follows is “all mission leaders always puts themselves on their mission” you (the individual) will lose most of your games. If you (the mission leader) deviates from an agreed about strategy, you will lose most of your games by definition. We are removing the human element.

You have to assume scum knows the town strategy and can choose the best possible one against it.

StarV · July 10, 2019, 9:04pm

I agree, but the mission leader wins more often than not in that scenario… The overall town win rate is trash though.

Ellibereth · July 10, 2019, 9:05pm

wait what’s your algo?
“Always let starv place himself on his own mission, else following a sensible system”
or
“Always let the mission leader place himself on their own mission”
because in the latter it’s still lose most of the time
while in the first sure you win more xD