Mafia 451 Draft

why so certain?

Me being a nerd doesn’t stop you also being one

I’ll explain my reasoning I’m still reading through the game. I’m almost done through D1.

I am definitely a nerd that is established seeing how im talking to you on a mafia specific forum

Glad we can agree on this

Can we agree I am town as our next subject?

1 Like

This is where I stand through Nanook’s Vig Shot. I’ll update once I finish getting up to speed.

Town
{Urist, Nanook}
Lean Town
{Duskfall98, Key, StarV}
Slight Lean Town
{GTacc, DS, Nuxl, Hannahh}
Neutral
{Doggoplays}
Lean Scum
{Srceenplay, Wisp, ErikaFurudo, ActionDan}
Scum
{ }

#65 - Key’s thought process here is easy to follow and has the added advantage of concluding that I’m probably Town. Town Lean there.

#81 - Hm. I would typically SR this. Also, a side bar here - Srceen played an excellent Scum game in Forging of the Rings. It was specifically praised by Chess (#1471 in that game). So Srceen is certainly someone I expect would have been bid on by Elli. #87 is also fairly ridiculous.

#83 - The more I re-read this game, the more I think Dusk is just Town.

#95 - Alright Nanook - I’ll maintain these in your honor. To bad we couldn’t be masons.

#123 - Alright, I think that’s what 3 probable bad reads?

#128 - Wisp is probably Scum too. This entry is completely off. If DS flips Town at any point in the game, lynch this for sure. #139 confirms it.

#150 - I know why Nanook was TR Dusk. And it sucks, but I agree.

#154 - is this GTacc tryharding? I like it. I agree with a lot of the reads actually. Don’t know if it says anything about GTacc’s alignment, but that’s interesting to note.

#162 - I don’t this says much about Nuxl’s alignment, but this is probably accurate either way. Which is more Townie points for Dusk.

#171 - I think this is what most players not familiar with Srceen would realistically conclude. Essentially, that he’s not being serious. And I think that’s how he gets away with being Scum and surviving for long.

#175 - Nuxl and Nanook (#233) both thought GTacc was Town. I’ll probably rely on this to some extent.

#194 - in hindsight, this post from DS is a bit of a bad look. Will downgrade my earlier stated read there.

#228 - this doesn’t help reduce my suspicion that Erika was bid on by Elli.

#249 - Srceen is calling everyone Scum this game (GTacc in this instance). How does this not get more consistently Scum Read is beyond me.

#254 - Yeah, I am going to call bullshit on this. There’s no way that based on Srceen’s post up until then that Wisp thought that the only two players worth calling Town are Srceen and GTacc. Mind you, Srceen was calling GTacc Scum like 5 posts before. So I’m going to say that this makes no sense. If Wisp or Srceen flip Scum, keep GTacc as Town for the rest of the game.

#255 - self-wifom? Interesting strategy.

I’m still rather annoyed by the use of the gladiate, but lynching StarV in the near future is probably wrong. However, keep #352 in mind. If StarV ever flips Scum, then surely lynch Erika. Though to be fair, how limited the choices are after the use of the gladiate makes these sort of statements a lot less indicative of potential partnerships.

#353 - this, however, pings me, since I’m TR Dusk and didn’t think Dusk was over justifying. #355 also seems off and is almost TMI. How is Erika so certain that StarV was Town, to the point that they were worried about StarV getting Lynched?

#357 - Again, this feels completely logical and my thoughts exactly. Alright @Duskfall98, I think you’re very likely Town. If you’re Scum, then good job I might lose to you here.

#365 - and how does this vote make any sense?

#366 - Wisp can certainly die in my book. This is every one of my reads reversed. So we’re entirely not aligned here. And #367 is a horrible hedge attempt.

#381 - I think the reasons that Doggo is weighing here as to why either one of DS or StarV should be Lynched are completely wrong hahaha I would argue those are reasons to TR them. I made the specific point that DS was probably not drafted by the Scum manager. And StarV using the power early and in this way (together with the power being what it is to bring with) is probably reason to think that they’re both Town. It’s just an interesting way to look at the game, but I haven’t played with Doggo enough so maybe not alignment indicative I don’t know.

#382 - Funny enough, I agree with this from Erika.

#384 - I have no clue why DS liked this post, besides the fact that it says that the Scum manager should have wanted to draft him.

#385 - if there’s any reason to think Wisp is Town, it would be the sheeping of Nanook here and the vote for No Lynch. I argued it was suboptimal, and Wisp seemed to be leaning towards voting for DS, so an interesting choice. Why would Scum not take the opportunity to lynch Town?

#396 - Okay see this is an interesting list for sure Town, since I’m currently SR Wisp and Erika. @StarV I have you as likely Town, so maybe you want to help me understand what I’m wrong about so far? I’ve highlighted most of my thoughts, so just let me know what you see.

#397 - Hm. Some interesting thoughts. Not unreasonable. I don’t agree, but I don’t find this ridiculous by any means. Yeah the idea that DS and StarV are Scum together I think is correctly discarded after the meltdown.

#400 - Yeah agreed. Did I say Key was Town yet?

Okay, I’ll pause for a second and say that I’m starting to get nervous - Nanook, Key, Duskfall98, Urist, Nanook and me all Town just doesn’t seem likely. Am I missing something? Key sounds extremely relaxed - is that a tell either way?

#411 - oh c’mon man. This is just bad. StarV’s subsequent explanations in #412 and #419 are exactly on point. If there’s a reason to think Key is Scum, it’s pushing this view. Not enough to downgrade yet, but definitely keep in mind.

#417 - I don’t agree, but this post is still funny.

#427 - Yeah… this is probably true.

#432 - meh I hate this answer to be honest. Dan’s limited contributions up to this point and this answer don’t help me much. StarV’s SR there is valid I think (#436).

#471 - Hannahh strikes me as Town. Just a first impression.

#474 - okay Dan, I’m downgrading you. Come at me.

#494 - alright StarV I’m locking you in a Town. I still hate you for the gladiate thing though.

Yeah probably, what about Andres’ reaction tho?

UNVOTE

After that post, if he is scum he can take the tryhard win

I’m not even done!

Also besides the post being towny, andres is arriving at mostly the same conclusions as me which is also good

why dont any of those # post links work?!

WE LITERALLY IMPLEMENTED THAT FOR YOU ANDRES

They do on mobile. Refresh?

works for me on pc

Sometimes takes a refresh/leaving the topic coming back.

Dusk I haven’t read past #617 yet but do you have thoughts on that from Key?

I’ll have to check but I’m pretty sure Andres can make these as any alignment because it would be pretty poor if he couldn’t

Also, I’m pretty sure Andres as scum also wants to win and will tryhard for it

Ah, that’s what triggered your view of Key Scum. Okay, I think I get it now.

Are you saying I’m Scum here? Please state for the record.

I think it’s possible, but I want to actually read the post and click on all the links before I decide one way or the other which I’ll only be able to do after I get home this evening. thanks for the post though :slight_smile:

And yes, Dusk’s read on me appears to be directly related to my read on him