A whole giant wallpost
Alright, so overnight I went through everyone’s Iso and looked for whether they made sense to be scum with Mist. This mostly isn’t looking at whether they’re villagery outside of that, just their interactions with her.
Also I’m only looking at things that happened before she started openwolfing, anything after that is basically WifoM.
Solic
Quoting this because it’s technically about Mist, don’t think this is AI at all.
Mist swaps votes relatively naturally and feels comfortable in thread. I like the fact that they had a “unique” take on Orange in them being present SoD meaning that they try to milk their own created meta even though the argument itself does not really hold much logical weight for me. I don’t have too much experience with with them, but light townlean.
Light townlean on Mist. The reasoning is decent so I’m not going to be like ‘yeah this is lock W/W with Mist, only scum defend town,’ but it’s definitely in ‘could be compatible’ territory.
I don’t want to execute Vulgard, Arete, Mist, Sulit, Datbird today. Probably ordered.
this fits with his previous read on Mist, at least, it doesn’t come totally out of the blue. Still makes me a little nervous.
I don’t hate this.
don’t think we ever got an answer on whether he doesn’t hate the gamestate or whether he doesn’t hate Mist’s posts
that’s all I could find, everything after that was post-Mist outing
Conclusion
overall, I can’t find anything to rule out Mist and Solic being W/W. I still find him independently mildly villagery, to be clear, just, if I look only at interactions a lot of them are kind of ehhhh.
Centuries
line between kat being scum actually openwolfing and them being legit trolling town is rather thin
i think that
fuck kat and also
closer to wolf than to town but like, not that much
First interaction I could find between the two of them, the whole ‘ping a wolfmate in the thread and ask a very generic question’ is definitely something I’ve done before but it’s not damning on its own.
this is technically an interaction in the sense that it was a reply to Mist
quoting it for the sake of completeness but this really isn’t moving the needle for me one way or another
SHUT THE FRICK UP MIST
thanks
I guess if I squint Centuries yelling at Mist makes them slightly less likely to be W/W??
I agree with Mist concerning how Orange feels similar to his play in Umineko, not that I wanted to remember that game, I’ve never seen scum Orange iirc so I don’t know how different he is as scum, rand v aswell
another ‘this is technically an interaction’ post
Quoting this even though it’s technically after Mist started openwolfing because I do actually think it’s AI, I think Conroy is ?probably? telling the truth here about not realizing that Mist was an outed wolf (not sure?) and I think Mist’s partners would have realized that she was an outed wolf, like, unless this is basically the worst wolf team ever it’s the sort of thing that would have come up in scum chat?? so this interaction makes me feel better about Conroy
Conclusions
There’s nothing that makes them 100 percent not W/W and a couple of their earlier interactions are a little
DatBird
technically mentions Mist, basically NAI for Bird
this kind of feels W/W, like he’s trying to deflect responsibility for reading her/avoid reading her
I didn’t see anything like that about anyone else while I was reading (although to be fair I was mostly skimming) and as far as I can tell the entire reason why he asked about Mist in particular is that she pocketed him in RotK but it’s not like she’s the only person who’s ever pocketed Dat
puts Marshal or Mist as her top execution choices, while not voting either of them. This feels pretty likely to be W/W distancing.
With mist, i think i am paranoid from last game, as they got me real good. So when reading through it I was trying to see if I was getting same vibes as last game, but I wasn’t instead I was getting minimal vibes at all. Just like everything they have done feels subdued and lacking to put it in the easiest terms. Basically i coulnt tell u a thing they have done. I prob will iso her later as i feel its more paranoia then anything, as thats what i told cheese to do last game when he was paranoid on me. But the lack of anything of note has me worried
pretty sure this is about the least it’s possible to say about Mist in this number of words, really not a fan of this. sorta like the one about where he asked how to read her, it feels like he’s trying to avoid actually making a read on her
everything else is after Mist was outed
Conclusion
I think Dat and Mist have a lot of W/W compatibility, there are a lot of interactions in here that look kind of W/W and nothing that makes me think they can’t be partners. Would be happy to chop this today/tomorrow/I don’t know which word to use when I’m writing overnight/decent odds no one sees this anyway
Ici
not going to lie I considered just not doing this analysis at all because Ici is super villagery regardless of interactions and I don’t think he could fake that
this seems basically NAI
I’m hereby consigning Solic and Mist to the “I think they’re V, but even though I can’t be sure since I’m quite frankly bad at reading them, there are specific things that should arise lighter that should let me ascertain their allignment that will occur later so let’s not kill them” pile.
this isn’t great, and honestly the qualifier makes me feel worse about it? like without the qualifier it’s a read that’s wrong and with the qualifier it’s a read that’s wrong and a preliminary excuse for it being wrong, which can sometimes be a sign of TMI
this is technically a reply to Mist but I don’t really think it’s AI
feel basically the same about this as I do about 729
and that’s it for things that happened before Mist was outed
Conclusions
If I ignored literally everything else Ici’s slot has done I’d be like ‘yeah this seems like it could be W/W’ but, like, Ici’s pretty easy to read in my experience <small minus the one time we misexe’d him as IC</small and if I … don’t ignore everything else his slot has done … I think he’s a villager
like interactions are bad but the rest of his posting seems ~fine
and now I’m like ‘why did I even bother to read through Ici’s interactions with Mist if I was just going to ignore them’ and it’s like 3:11 AM and in hindsight I probably should have started this earlier
is anyone even still reading this far
I’m probably going to die N1 and this is going to go to waste anyway
anyways
Hippo
No misty you are misrepresenting what I said.
the snarky comment Hippo is responding to + Hippo’s response calling her out for misrepping him doesn’t really feel W/W, obviously distancing is a thing but Mist’s sarcasm here feels like a wolf talking to a villager
think this is unlikely to be W/W, specifically the part where he talks about pretending it was a typo if she flips town
it doesn’t feel like he has TMI that she’s going to flip scum and I don’t think he would think to add that part if he did
kinda think this is also not W/W, Mist was at L-2 at this point IIRC with Hippo pushing for a hammer, the pushing for a quickhammer could be performative but I don’t think him actively trying to get Mist onto L-1 is performative, I’m assuming the PR claim was at least semi-planned and if Hippo’s thing had worked he would have basically been forced to hammer her, which would prevent a PR claim
this is sort of, like, I’m questioning whether a wolf would write this if their plan was to bus their partner and then coast on the cred until endgame and I think the answer is ‘no’
this is another post where, like, I absolutely believe a wolf would have the thought about being associated with them but I think probably they wouldn’t post it in the game thread
I remember hating this when I first saw it, to be fair to Hippo part of that was that I was kind of worried that we were headed for a Game 2 repeat but I remember thinking that if Mist did flip Mafia it kind of looked like TMI
he had an explanation later for how he didn’t see Mist’s PR claim but he didn’t actually unvote even after he saw it so I’m still kind of at ‘yeah this could be TMI’
orange had a take that it would be kind of weird to vote Mist right after she claimed PR without even waiting for a CC, I’m not totally sure if I buy it given that I think most people wouldn’t immediately hammer her unless they were actually a conflicting PR and if the conflicting PR outs by quickhammering Mist that still outs them to the wolves
think that’s it before Mist started openwolfing
Conclusions
Overall I think this is a pretty good look for Hippo, even if he wasn’t one of the strongest pushers on Mist there are a couple interactions that don’t really feel W/W and a bunch of things in here that make me think Hippo didn’t have TMI on Mist’s alignment, the only thing that I could really see as W/W is Hippo voting Mist right after she claimed and never seeming to really even question whether or not Mist’s claim was real. I think it’s really unlikely Hippo was W/W with Mist.
sulit + Vul
yeah screw this it’s past 3:30 AM and I townread them both pretty strongly anyways
Geyde
technically an interaction, not really AI
Scum need to try
And Marshal’s actively not trying
It’s not the type where it helps him at all later either
It gets people to focus on his slot’s posts a lot
It’s just strictly bad play for scum
this isn’t technically a read on Mist but given that Mist was in fact a wolf and not really trying this argument is sort of making me mrrrrr
these are all pretty softball questions to Mist, I feel like a lot of his questions had more meat to them
edit: scrolling down a bit that’s not 100 percent true, he has some similarly softbally questions to Dat e.g. in 1551
technically about Mist but basically NAI
vote on Mist is probably a slightly good look, I checked and he was a relatively early vote on her, the next votecount I can find is this one:
Vote Count
|Accused|Voters|Number|
| — | — | — |
|Marshal|Mistyx, katze, Arete|3/7|
|Hippoyeetus|DatBird, Icibalus, Vulgard|3/7|
|katze|Centuries, Marshal|2/7|
|Mistyx|sulit, Geyde|2/7|
|DatBird|orangeandblack5|1/7|
|orangeandblack5|Solic|1/7|
|Not voting|Hippoyeetus|1|
where he’s the second vote. Not willing to 100 percent clear him because from what I’ve seen he’s pretty willing to bus as scum but I do think it’s a good look.
highkey feels like a rule of 3 given that I think Hippo and Marshal are both very likely V
I feel like early thread had a lot more fun stuff
And I can’t see the entire wolf team completely being in PoE
So I suggest we kill Arete
dislike this argument a lot given Mist’s flip
maybe it’s just that I have TMI on my alignment but given that we know the first person in immediate PoE was a wolf who was not trying particularly hard Geyde being like ‘what if the PoE is wrong?? let’s kill Arete, also I will not comment on Mist’s alignment while making this argument’ feels like he’s trying to find an alternative to Mist while also softdefending her by suggesting that wolves would need to tryhard
think this could go either way (n.b. this is before Mist outed)
the one thing I can confidently say about it is that it’s not W/V with Geyde as the wolf but we already knew that from Mist flipping scum so
ok I’m lazy so I’m not going to go figure out where this should go (I missed this the first time but Geyde quotes it later in his Iso) but I don’t think this is out of the realm of distancing
everything after that is post-Mist outing
sidenote this isn’t really relevant to Mist interactions but I’m not a fan of Geyde’s response to my pressure on him, like, he jumps straight to accusing me of pushing on him in bad faith
Conclusions
there’s like one thing that I think is a slightly good look (him voting Mist early on) and a few things that I think are pretty bad looks here, I think overall Geyde has a lot of potential to be a Mist partner and him voting Mist early isn’t enough to outweigh that
Town:
Solic
Hippo
Ici
Mist
Sulit
Vul
Cent
Dat
Arete
Geyde
Kat
Orange
ama
IIRC this is from his early fake readlist so I’m not going to read too much into Mist’s placement given that … the reads were fake …
Marshal was pushing on Mist really early on, pretty sure this was one of the earliest reasons people had for making a serious push on her, bussing isn’t outside of Marshal’s wolfrange but I think it would be ~suboptimal~ for him to lead the charge against her on D1
continuing to lead the push on Mist, again I’m pretty sure she wasn’t coming under much pressure at this point which makes me feel a little better about the push not being a bus
think the second half of this is unlikely to be distancing, I could see W!Marshal calling a partner lockwolf if he was bussing them since his busses tend to lack nuance but I don’t think he would explicitly call for a thunderdome like this, particularly since he wasn’t particularly townread either – like, this is the sort of thing that easily could have backfired on W!Marshal and gotten him exe’d
sidenote I think that if Marshal’s plan were ‘hardbus Mist to get into the towncore then deepwolf to endgame’ he would have tried harder to be townread in the early game, which is another thing that makes me think he probably wasn’t bussing
Below null:
DatBird
Mistyx
continuing to dunk on Mist
not sure there’s much point in quoting every post where he does it? ‘wow this is another post in which he calls the flipped wolf a wolf, amazing’
<small honestly the level of confidence he displayed so early on for relatively thin reasons is starting to make me slightly scared that it was a bus? but I still don’t really think Marshal’s approach makes much sense if he was bussing</small
its literally a tonal read that her posts lack the villa!mist spark that I think i’ve learned to identify
Take for example pantheon mash (last game we villaged together)
She was just
instantly easily identifiable by how she constantly spat out reads with good logical basis in a natural way
here it all feels
just rlly underwhelming and not that
~lockwolf was a kneejerk reaction but I think she is mafia
think him softening his read on her here is unlikely to come from scum, if he were scum with TMI that she were scum I don’t think he would have felt the need to add the qualifier, I think that’s more likely to come from wrong town
that said I actually want to give mist/dat room even though I think both of them have Easily Identifiable Townmetas™ and are not in them
because its exactly possible they are just being thrown off
I don’t think pressure is needed to read either of their slots.
on its own this post is kind of ehhhh but I think in context it doesn’t reallllly make sense in a W!Marshal world? like in a W!Marshal world his strategy was basically ‘deathtunnel Mist for towncred’ and this doesn’t really fit into a strategy like that at all which makes me think that he probably wasn’t bussing
continuing to dunk on Mist
kiinda think the pushing for a quickhammer is a slightly good look? like technically it could be performative distancing but sort of with Hippo I think him specifically pinging people (looking at kat here, not Mist) to try to get them to help is a somewhat good look
don’t feel as strongly about this as I do with the Hippo read
lol
thinking this is probably a good look since he’s actively trying to shut down role spew from Mist’s claim, which would defeat most of the point of scum Mist claiming PR
could technically be for towncred but I think the way he expressed it through sarcasm rather than being like ‘wtf guys! it is very important that we not say anything that might spew our roles! haha…’ makes it more likely to be a genuine sentiment rather than a bid for cred
I mean like
we dont have to kill mist because she’s a wolf PR at worst (which only serve to counter the town PRs) and if wolves leave her alive thats leaving a town PR alive to do PR things
however I am like 97.9999% confident in her being mafia so I am more than willing 2 go the “fuck it” route and badoink her anyways
and him continuing to push for her to die rather than waiting for a CC is ?probably? a good look since it would, again, undermine literally the entire point of making this play as mafia
don’t want to 100 percent count on it since the ‘beat up Mist’s chances of living’ post almost feels like TMI that she’s flipping scum but given the rest of his Iso I can buy that he was just really confident in Mist W
and of course I am not hard claiming
I might not die because i’m protected by virtue of being marshal
but what I am saying is that I am trying to move more votes in the direction of the mist subtly for whatever reason
I think him picking up on the fact that I was CCing Mist and trying to cover for her is super villagery, I don’t think he would have thought to do something like that as scum
Conclusions
Overall, I think Marshal is very unlikely to be W/W with Mist. He spent the entirety of D1 dunking on her, and while hardbussing isn’t outside of his scumrange the rest of his play on D1 makes me think it’s unlikely that he was bussing, and some of his approach to Mist would be really dumb as scum.
kat and orange
okay I’m going to be honest it’s 4:38 AM and if I stay up any longer I’m going to get less than 6 hours of sleep so I’m just not going to do these Isos overnight
whyyy am I doiiiing this
the tl;dr of my thoughts there are ‘my [redacted] read on kat applies regardless of anything that happened with Mist’ and ‘orange doesn’t like bussing but spent a large part of D1 pushing Mist, he’s probably just clear from that’
but technically I haven’t looked into them further
Overall Conclusions I’m clearing Ici, Vul, and sulit for general independent villageriness regardless of any interactions
I’m clearing Hippo + Marshal for having really non-W/W interactions with Mist
I didn’t actually re-read kat or orange’s Iso with an eye for interactions analysis but I have them both as ‘yeah probably town’ albeit for different reasons (with orange being more interactions/associations based
this leaves me with a PoE of Solic/Centuries/Dat/Geyde, I think it’s reasonably likely that both remaining wolves are in that PoE
I think Solic/Centuries are probably the villageriest out of the four of them, would probably not want to vote there today, leaving me with Dat and Geyde
and Geyde hasn’t been villagery but Dat’s interactions are actually awful, I think given that I’d much rather go for Dat today. Geyde at least has ‘voting a wolf early’ as a redeeming point whereas Dat’s interactions with Mist have ~no redeeming features and have several traits of W/W interactions, such as vaguely shading Mist without pushing her, and trying to avoid making a read on her. Dat also … hasn’t been particularly villagery? like he had more posts in Shortnight which was a 6p with under 500 posts than he does here
they weren’t killing you on my watch.