LotR Mafia

Okay I can paste the full thing I guess

Didnā€™t want to hit you with the wall but

Laser and made

I pretty obviously nonscum

Squirrel was trying to pocket orange

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Didnā€™t work because my hard core push on them.

Squirrel2412 - although everything else will be written after his flip, I threw this together on my phone rq right at EoD1, intentionally before the actual flip. I feel like Squirrel is likely to be scum here - he made a number of posts pointing out aspects of the setup but has very few that actually involve reads on players other than the early wagons. When he makes a joke about finding a scumteam and StarV comments on it, he gets defensive and points out it was sarcasm again despite the post already having a ā€œ/sā€ signifier, and I feel like town!squirrel is more likely to just roll with that. He selfvotes early, something I think heā€™s less likely to do as town, starts going after Made when he starts getting early pressure, and then townreads me forā€¦ not being actively doing things? Itā€™s a weird read that from my history with squirrel I donā€™t think he would genuinely make unless heā€™s completely forgotten about a few of our games. Basically, it feels like heā€™s trying to get on my good side rather than actually evaluate me, and I feel most confident on him flipping red. Iā€™m just gonna feel dumb if he has a role that encourages him to self-vote and was being nice to me since he pretty needlessly teamkilled me last game.

The rest of these are, due to logistical reasons, coming after Squirrel flipped red - in a way unfortunate, because it will color my perception of the rest of these slots, but at least youā€™ll get a feel for how I look at things after a red flip while the Squirrel read can show you what I think beyond that. Going into this, I have not yet truly reviewed D1 in light of the flip, and so I should still be able to put myself into the shoes I was in before the actual flip quite easily while expanding upon that by adding in some post-flip analysis.

ActionDan - Post-flip: basically locktown, slot ultimately pushed scum!squirrel over likely town Made at EoD1 when he had no obligation to do so whatsoever (tl;dr - anyone who says ā€œIf I wasnā€™t voting made Iā€™d vote squirrelā€ and then actually votes squirrel is town). Pre-flip, I thought the way he questioned squirrel about things I also found weird to show the same kinds of thought processes I was having.

Andresvmb - My thoughts on this slot are that I donā€™t yet have many thoughts - for Andres thatā€™s probably townier than not from my (admittedly limited) experience. However, as another slot that was scumreading Made yet ended the day on squirrel after pushing them above Made, theyā€™re likely town.

chesskid3 - Chess was on Made just about whenever he was in thread but never really made an effort to sink him, which considering the scum flip is probably more likely to come from somebody who genuinely thought Made was scummy rather. This is reinforced by their response to me saying I think Made is a miss being asking me if I think Squirrel is a miss too - this is a conventionally bad look but it doesnā€™t actually make an effort to save Squirrel at all so for now Iā€™m chalking him up as incorrect town and will see how he operates on D2.

Duskfall98 - Dude basically missed the entire actual phase. Gun to head, I think his mistaking Madeā€™s statement about being town until tomorrow for alignment changing mechanics and his attitude (saying he was submitting a dayvig and that his voting restriction was voting mafia) are a bit more likely to come from town. At least I donā€™t think scum usually says that and then never even votes. Still, I canā€™t count out irl issues cropping up, so I wouldnā€™t bank the game on it.

laserlab - laser has decent scum equity. They note that they have to vote correctly (be on scum wagon that goes over or be off town wagon that goes over) to power up but only vote once and unvote before EoD, and unfortunately almost literally all of their posts (twice as many as chesskid) are focused on this one mechanic that by EoD they donā€™t even act on. Notably, they voted squirrel when no votes were on them, but wordlessly unvoted squirrel when the wagons got competitive. See Appendix A.

Made - Post-flip this guy is pretty clear in my opinion, so Iā€™ll just link you to some of my posts explaining my thoughts there from before the flip. Maybe Iā€™m wrong and we were running up w/w wagons most of D1 but I donā€™t believe that is the case at this time.

https://forum.mafia451.com/t/lotr-mafia/4860/203?u=orangeandblack5

https://forum.mafia451.com/t/lotr-mafia/4860/207?u=orangeandblack5

https://forum.mafia451.com/t/lotr-mafia/4860/208?u=orangeandblack5

https://forum.mafia451.com/t/lotr-mafia/4860/214?u=orangeandblack5

Srceenplay - He probed me, turned on squirrel instead of me when I started catching onto squirrel, and rode that wagon to EoD. Itā€™s possible theyā€™re scum, and the part where they listed made/squirrel/me as a scumteam sets off the alarm in my mind that goes off whenever somebody lists one scum member in a group with two town, him calling squirrel ā€œFAKEā€ in all caps is pretty reassuring. Probably town, but if anyone was bussing this is probably it.

StarV - I mentioned this earlier but it seems like StarV isnā€™t actually taking the last step on any of the pushes he makes to actually extract useful info out of them. Furthermore, the pushes he has made have felt over-justified for his usual playstyle - Iā€™d expect effectively no reasons, but instead most of his pushes have come with some level of justification. I havenā€™t seen scum!StarV outside of video mafia, but I suspect heā€™s letting the need to feel like he can talk himself out of being suspected for his pushes slip through the cracks in the form of small justifications that town!him doesnā€™t feel the need to make public whatsoever. His resistance to going onto squirrel over made doesnā€™t help. This needs pressure on D2.

Urist - Not a lot of posts but voted StarV, who I think is actively scummy, and Squirrel, who is flipped scum, while actively trying to dissuade a push on Made, who I think is town. Jumping off of StarV to tie Squirrel up is a good look regardless of StarVā€™s alignment - if heā€™s town, Urist just helped send Squirrel over the top, and if heā€™s scum then Urist just put a less-likely-to-be-able-to-successfully-defend-himself scum member with less thread goodwill in a tie with the miselim instead of just keeping the scum tied for second.

As one sidenote, while it is possible the team is exactly Laser/StarV, StarV telling Laser he could promise Squirrel was Mafia and then voting Made and sticking there the rest of the day seems awfully ballsy if that is in fact the team. Furthermore, he grouped laser and Squirrel with dusk and myself for a grouping he posited contained the scum at one point:

which is also incredibly ballsy to do, particularly since laser is pretty new. StarV is a ballsy player, so Iā€™m not counting it out, and Iā€™ll watch how they interact tomorrow, but Iā€™m by no means tunneled on these two.

Thus, my final rankings are:

ActionDan
Made
Urist

Andresvmb
Chesskid3

Duskfall98
Srceenplay

StarV
laserlab


Appendix A

Laser also has several posts Iā€™d consider particularly likely to come from newer scum. Please let me know if you agree or disagree with these.

Stressing itā€™s useless ā€œto the rest of townā€ is pretty awkward language and feels kinda unnatural to go out of your way to say unless you want to give off the impression youā€™re with the town. Expanding on that in a follow-up that is pretty obvious anyways reads like somebody awkwardly trying to kinda justify their previous post and I donā€™t think town feels the need to do that either.

Following up an unvote on scum with a joke about the number of scum feels like the kind of thing scum just find psychologically easier to do than town because telling jokes that hinge on the truth is really appealing for whatever reason. The fact this is substituted for literally any talk of anything relating to alignments or wagons makes this case far more likely imo.

ā€¦was that you?

No that was ActionDan like I thought

How tf do none of you have immediately sensible reads

Did not read orangeā€™s post, his timestamp is mafia, Elli told me so.

sink starv first

ask questions later

GL with that. The revolution will live on after my passingā€¦ Actually, there probably wonā€™t be a passing at all.

If all else fails, I will run you over on my way to the capitol building. :train2:

Sheep me friends.

I was right about Squirrel too.

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oh please

:dealwithitparrot:

Iā€™m omniscient

The first player to guess my flavor gets a forever town read.