I’m underwhelmed by tn because they can’t take a joke.
In particular I mean this. I make a joke to enter the game, and they take it as Scummy right of the bat. I thought that was pretty silly.
I also think this is bad. Perhaps don’t trust self-meta given to you within a game for a specific purpose, but I think there’s people that are very willing to over share about themselves, and will sometimes give you clues on how to read them. And over the long-run you can sort of spot who is being truthful about themselves.
Also I started trying to calculate the probabilities for myself and when I realized that executing a Scum D1 meant that the CM would not be able to save a player shot overnight (which changes the odds and the tree), I gave up. Way too many calculations.
Ahh, okay
Ahh, good point. I know on Forum of Lies, people try to self-meta within games and everyone always says this is bad. But you make a good point about still paying attention to the clues and evaluating for yourself what fits their meta.
I really need to finish writing my whole “conventional mafia theory is wrong” guide.
I know it sounds bad when you just look at the aspect of the CM losing a chance to save a player. But you have to focus on the first part, which is that it means you’ve eliminated 1 of the 2 scum already. I think that’s definitely worth it.
Okay so here is the thing. We have Elli and Dan who have both claimed not CM. Intuitively I can see what Elli is saying in that you basically have an IC with a claimed CM which narrows down the pool, since I thought was obvious but it’s been confirmed that the Scum aren’t going to CC. Since they’ve already narrowed down the pool for the Scum, it might make sense for us to simply claim CM/Not CM.
So, not CM.
I don’t actually mind your theory conversations.
Also, I would like to see the calculations behind the probabilities you threw out. Just out of curiosity. Maybe after the game?
Well, let’s play that out. If the CM claims, then they will likely be the NK target. If we yeet scum D1, then CM becomes vanilla anyway, so I guess it doesn’t matter. But if we yeet town D1 and the CM is the NK target, then they either save themselves or do a venge shot. Which do you propose they do? Saving themselves isn’t quite as useful as it would have been to save another town since that would have given 2 confirmed town rather than just the 1. Taking the venge shot would require us to decide on the best target.
I’m just being lazy. I don’t want to redo them and I don’t want to use discord search haha. They’re from a chat group done at some point in 2019.
Anyway I also think Whysper has almost posted too much and asked too many questions to be Scum, but I’ve been fooled before.
If the CM claims, and we don’t execute Scum, I always felt it was optimal for the CM to save themselves. Having an IC two days in a row trying to figure out what’s going on seemed more valuable to me than them picking someone to die after being shot, particularly if they don’t have a good sense for the Scum in this game.
The thing is, if someone else has a good sense of the scum, then we can give them a target now. Like we should decide on 2 targets now, one for yeet and one for venge shot.
But if say Elli is the CM, by all means take your shot. I wouldn’t shoot, but I believe there’s some players where there’s some upside.
Andres, I should ask you then, how do you feel about Jake or Doggo for targets?
BTW, Andres, thanks for coming back and trying to help figure this stuff out. I’m glad you got back some motivation. 
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calculation chat log
Ellibereth10/17/2019
i mean okay
with d1 medic claim
5/7 of the time it goes to a 75/25
2/7 of the time it goes to a 53/46
Urist10/17/2019
so i think the question is, does d1 medic claim harm town winrate enough to prefer flipless?
Ellibereth10/17/2019
without d1 medic claim
(2/8)(5/6)(4/5) it becomes 2v5 with 2 IC’s
Urist10/17/2019
you don’t know that they’re ICs
Ellibereth10/17/2019
wait thats wrong
Urist10/17/2019
because flipless
LOL
scum can counterclaim
hahahah
Ellibereth10/17/2019
(2/8)(5/6)(4/5) it becomes 1v4 with an IC
Urist10/17/2019
if medic doesn’t claim d1 and a vt is killed d1, ideal scum play is to claim medic start of day 2 right?
Ellibereth10/17/2019
uh so it’s a 2v5
and 2 medics claiming
lets say you kill both
Urist10/17/2019
and go to 1v2
sure
Ellibereth10/17/2019
m
Urist10/17/2019
67% scum win
so i guess it’s better to not claim
Ellibereth10/17/2019
okay
so with d1 medic claim
town winrate is 31%
so yeah
Urist10/17/2019
marginally
although if medic doesn’t claim
there’s a chance you don’t get 2 ICs
Ellibereth10/17/2019
what
if medic doesn’t claim
Urist10/17/2019
because the scum could shoot medic
Ellibereth10/17/2019
the tree is
Urist10/17/2019
only 1/5 chance tho
StarV10/17/2019
Hmm
Ellibereth10/17/2019
kill medic kill town
kill medic kill scum
kill scum kill 2 vt
kill scum kill 1 medic 1 vt
kill vt
let’s just compute it lol
kill medic kill town happens (1/8)(5/7) and leads to 3v2 (87% scum).
kill medic kill scum happens (1/8)(2/7) and leads to 4v1 (53% scum).
kill scum kill 2 vt happens (2/8)(5/6)(4/5) and leads to 4v1 with IC (50% scum)
kill scum kill 1 medic 1 vt happens (2/8)(1/6+(5/6)(1/5)) and leads to 4v1 (53% scum).
kill vt happens (5/8) and leads to:
2v5 with medic who saved someone else (4/5): (70% scum)
2v5 with medic who saved self (1/5): (75%) scum
question is what the numbers are for last two given that its flipless
so we assume scum counterclaims
in the former
Urist10/17/2019
i think it actually hurts scum winrate to cc
Ellibereth10/17/2019
no
yeah
2v5 with 2 ic is 70/30 scum
Urist10/17/2019
67% vs 75%
Ellibereth10/17/2019
so flipless doesn’t matter
nah its 67 vs 70
Urist10/17/2019
it’s 75/25 scum no?
oh nvm
Ellibereth10/17/2019
2v5 2 ic is70/30
Urist10/17/2019
dumb
Ellibereth10/17/2019
okay
so if medic saved self
if no cc
Urist10/17/2019
also you can simplify your math
Ellibereth10/17/2019
yeah i know
i’m just making it easy to follow
no cc is 75% scum
okay
yeah thats bettter
Urist10/17/2019
yup
Ellibereth10/17/2019
66%
scum win
so 34% town
Setup creator agrees
Shakespeare 
10/22/2019
everyone can run their own numbers, but what I got for CM always claiming vs CM never claiming is that town gains a whooping 3% if the CM never claims d1 and always claims d2 vs the situation where the CM claims always on d1
Shakespeare 10/23/2019
I got 34 vs 31 with a calculator
I don’t think it really matters
There we go.
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nah I had a lot I had on my list that was almost done before I got sick as shit and permanently behind on work. I’m caught up enough to be motivated to make the site not shit again…
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Jake has one meaningful contribution, in that he doesn’t want to get “suckered” into executing Elli so that they don’t shoot a Town member as Scum. Implicit in that is I think the notion that Elli is bad Scum and would make himself obvious over time.
There’s not much to go on, but if you’re at Elli Town, Jake maybe doesn’t make much sense.