Flip Flappers Mafia [TOWN WIN]

Players alive: Urist, Nanook, Andres, Screenplay

@flipflap

July 23, 2018 6:00 AM (Europe: Paris), July 22, 2018 9:00 PM (America: Los Angeles)

K

Makes sense, 4 is better than 3 for scum.

This is the rare case where I think no lynch is optimal town play. Force the scum to make a kill and give us more to work with.

Alternatively, we can YOLO this. Iā€™d prefer not to do that, though. This game has been painful as shit, letā€™s at least try to get something out of it.

Fairly comfortable saying itā€™s not screenā€“if he and Elli are the scum team, they win yesterday by bating Andres into a Nanook vote. Not sure why scumscreen hardcore busses instead, so Iā€™m reasonably confident in screen as town. Which leaves me with ISOs of Urist and Andres to do.

One thing tweaking me about Urist (Iā€™m reading his ISO firstā€“this is just the quickread variety, Iā€™ll do a deeper read later)ā€¦he spends an awful lot of time D3 prodding at Milo to contribute more and visibly asking me for my reads (I had just joined). Thatā€™s a good way to look busy and helpful as scum, without having to actually do anything.

Not AI on its own obviously, but something that tweaked me nonetheless.

Iā€™d say the end of D4 where a bunch of Elli votes piled up fast then dissipated was interesting, because Urist led that dissipationā€¦but I was rght there with him in thinking it felt hinky, so I can see how that comes from a town POV. With the benefit of hindsight that Elli is scumā€¦maybe it was hinky, just for different reasons. Could have been an attempt by Urist to distance, followed by him seeing an opportunity to save his partner when it went sourā€¦not sure if thatā€™s a narrative that holds any water or not though. Will have to think more about that.

This is an interesting VC, and I could see this going either way. Is this Urist saving his buddy, or Andres going for easy distancing knowing that Elli is the tiebreaker and will lynch Cats? Iā€™m leaning towards saying itā€™s easy distancing, especially since the votes came in very close to each other. This still doesnā€™t rule out Urist, though.

Iā€™m trying to figure out which of the Elli votes from Urist/Andres looks better/worse. I think I keep coming back to the idea that Uristā€™s Elli pushes always give him some wiggle room to go elsewhere if the winds shift, whereas Andres is a bit more decisive about it. Minor point against Urist.

That being said, the timing behind Andresā€™ D4 and D5 Elli votes keeps tinging me for the interaction with Elliā€™s posts. D4 comes right before Elli hammers Cats, and D5 right after Elli comes very close to conceding (in a way that conveniently sets me up as a mislynch today).

Reading through Andres now. First thing that jumps out is wow is his focus narrow. Itā€™s basically my slot for the whole game, with one or two additional lighter reads thrown in.

The exchange from 1056 to 1063 still rubs me the wrong way. It doesnā€™t read as an honest attempt to engage with someone to me, it reads as an attempt to make them look bad via nitpicking and ā€œIā€™m so superiorā€ ā€œlogic.ā€

Of course, that could be condescending town that is incapable of reading between lines even a little, too.

Very interesting passage from here: Flip Flappers Mafia [Day 5]

To here: Flip Flappers Mafia [Day 5]

We get Elli softpushing an Andres vote, followed right away by Andres voting Elli, then unvoting forā€¦no reason that I can find, then voting Elli again when the cats wagon reaches 3.

I genuinely am not sure what to make of this yet, but itā€™s something Iā€™m digging at. I feel like thereā€™s something to be found here.

Alright, Iā€™m finshing this up at a later date.

Another thought is that I tend to think it makes more sense for Urist to keep everyone alive than Andres, but thatā€™s an off the cuff thing, I havenā€™t actually gamed that one through yet.

I have some opinions about the lack of kill but Iā€™d like for @Andresvmb & @Srceenplay to check in before I reveal them.

Iā€™m here. I havenā€™t read Nanookā€™s posts yet, but I will later.

Iā€™m not voting Andre but probably voting NL

I am trying to figure out what the benefit is to not NK someone at this point. It does make sense to me that we would wait for Scum to act before deciding anything. I wasnā€™t expecting to be in this situation I guess.

@Urist, whenever you are ready.

The benefit in a vacuum is that 1/4 odds to lynch scum are lower than 1/3. In some cases, 3 is better than 4 depending on the players (for example, if two players have already committed to voting you no matter what and youā€™re playing scum, you might want to kill one, or if thereā€™s a cop or doc claim or something of that nature on the table)ā€¦but generally speaking, without mitigating factors, 4 alive is better for scum than 3. The more confusion the better for scum, and itā€™s generally harder for 3 town players to come together than 2.