Phase 2 Votes:
Colin (1): northsidegal
northsidegal (1): beeboy
Key (1): StarV
StarV (1): Srceenplay
Not Voting (4): Key, NotMafia, Urist, Colin
Someone tried to contact Colin
Someone tried to contact Srceenplay
Phase 3 ends 2019-02-25T05:00:00Z.
RESET
@keychain - i feel like i explained myself decently well on both points you took issue with. i felt it was best to hold off on discussing what i thought the meaning of attempted contacts would be until later, and i explained as such. i also explained that, while there was always the possibility of a quickhammer in this instant reveal format, it was unlikely, and especially so on the first day.
i’m a little hurt to see you say say that i’m not thinking just by voting day 1 when the odds of a majoirty picking the same person day 1 is something that i don’t think is realistic at all.
why do you believe that as spy i would choose to forego making a show of how much thought i’ve given, as opposed to the reality that i truly believe the best play to be holding off on my thoughts for the time being? how does it benefit me as spy? obviously i’m biased, but i don’t see a strong connection between what you said regarding me and that making me a good vote.
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i’m not sure what to make of beeboy thinking the exact same thing. i’m interested to hear his responses to this current (phase 1?) round of posts.
in a mafia game i might be inclined to townread someone just saying “dunno” on reads.
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starv’s post i townread. don’t agree with most of his reads, though. i could see keychain as scum, don’t really scumread beeboy, don’t think srceenplay should be townread (from his first post at least, haven’t gotten to the second one).
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oh great, getting shaded again for saying that there is a chance that we all reveal to have 5 people coincidentally have voted the same person and yet doing it anyways because it is exceedingly unlikely.
i kind of like urist’s post, although it’s kind of a far cry from what i normally expect to see from town urist. (assuming you’re the same urist over at mafiascum). the strategy section i’m not a huge fan of but i like the idea of making predictions.
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srceenplay’s post doesn’t do a lot for me. initially i thought it could plausibly be read to attempt spy partner colin, but that pairing is impossible given the contacts.
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???
not going to bother voting. don’t have as many townreads as i’d like. submitting this first draft because im already low on time
First, the obvious: Colin and Srceenplay aren’t scum together. Scum think Colin and Srceen look like scum, if both of them are trying to contact each other.
I think most likely to contact Colin is potentially North and most likely to contact Srceen are StarV and NM (claiming a contact on Srceen the same day scum contact Srceen is hilarious).
Srceenplay posts look like he’s putting more energy into his secret messages than anything else. Was the last one AGENT?
North: Nice to play again with you too! I wanted your thoughts over bee’s because last discrete game I played with beeboy, he said pretty much nothing first post iirc so I was expecting something similar here. I’m interested in your thoughts because you’re good with strategy and because you’re less likely to put the effort into strategy theory as scum from what I know of you (which is also my answer to whoever else asked why I wanted your opinion, it’s tricky to reference on phone). Having to figure out who your partner is might counter your usual scum apathy though.
Colin, why didn’t you vote me after predeclaring your vote for me last post? StarV voting for me after me getting two votes first post and Colin saying he’d vote for me again, despite saying in their first post we should delay eliminating until we’ve figured out who has better reads and having a second scumread, doesn’t make much sense since it was probably the vote with highest chance of elimination but I don’t know whether that’s town or scum inconsistency.
I want to believe in miracles
VOTE: NotMafia
VOTE: Not Mafia
I think this is an obvious bluff.
Good luck guessing the other scum guys.
VOTE: beeboy
Wow, day 2 is a lot to unpack… northsidegal, I think your analysis of key and beeboy is off, the “thinks the same as me, must be town” tell is odd because I generally think the opposite, “thinks the same as me… must be mafia” tell @urist.
@northsidegal to answer: most agents, least information… Statistically least likely they will be to hit all game (as we factor one spy out of the equation it’s a blind 1/7 (I thought there were day 1 contacts, clearly the mods also thought of this being a problem).
@Key remains suspect #1 for me, his post takes a turn for the worse as he seems to just be distracting from any relevant information to the game. And to answer your question Key:
both you and your partner reach Endgame alive by contacting each other and have fewer than 50% of surviving agents guess both of your identities
I mean attempting to lynch during the day, and while it is telegraphed, the opposite problem exists that if you don’t do it as a spy, you will simply lose in the endgame.
@beeboy picks one person out of 3 that suggested something similar and still voted, seems like a poor attempt at drawing shade on a post that isn’t really scummy. Otherwise, very similar again, just a bunch of “dunno, dunno and dunno with a couple of slightly less dunno”.
@notmafia I don’t really know, I’m kind of leaning town, but also could be an early lynch if we get an agreement by tomorrow just to avoid confusion and his posts are useless.
@urist makes some good points, I like him as town minus his timeline, but I’d imagine that’s a worst-case scenario. I like the point about @Colin a lot.
@screenplay I read the same as day 1, really nothing to see here.
@Colin see above in this post, my reply to key has the key. But it seems you’re right, just because 50% guess correctly and spies lose, doesn’t mean agents win.
Now, the contacts…
Interesting notes:
Colin gets 1 scum read, 1 vote, and is contacted day 2
Screenplay gets what I understand as 1 scum read, and is contacted day 2
VOTE: Key
So somehow I missed the fact that beeboy also stated obvious facts about the setup. In light of that, beeboy looks pretty suspicious. It shows that either a) he really hasn’t thought about the setup and my reason for finding Key suspicious also applies to him, or b) he has thought about the setup and he just didn’t roll the alignment he was hoping for. Either way, it’s scummy.
And Colin, I refuse to play your game of cat and mouse. My answer should be obvious.
YESTERDAY’S PREDICTIONS RECAP:
Key called nsg scummy for her hypocritical vote. Yay the person I already thought was scummy did the thing I thought they’d do.
Nobody scumread me for my first post. Eh. nsg (and possibly Colin, although it looks like his agent read on me might’ve been PoE) townread me for it, which I didn’t expect. I think the same logic probably applies here, with nsg throwing out a seemingly baseless read looking bad for her. Nobody called NotMafia town. I’m so proud of y’all. StarV overcame his bee obsession. Good for him. Colin was targeted by a spy: I’m so smart wowee.I don’t have a lot of time, Sundays are crappy for me because I have no free time til an hour before deadline. But I’ll get some reads out while I can.
Key is my main suspect at the moment. beeboy and northsidegal are looking suspicious as well, with the former significantly moreso.
NotMafia is definitely arrogant enough to put his contact action as part of his post, but it could be a coincidence.
StarV looks like town, I like that he picked up on the same stuff as I did regarding both Key and beeboy, but went even further with it.
Colin looks like town for reasons I stated yesterday. I also think that if he were a spy, his first contact would be someone he isn’t familiar with (i.e. most people other than Srceenplay).
Srceenplay looks meh. I dislike the ranking of his town reads, especially the obvtown remark on Colin. I think that Colin is likely to be town, but obvtown is definitely a stretch, and is potentially a cover if he had planned to target Colin (and if Srceen is a spy, we know that he tried to contact Colin last night).
URIST’S KRYSTAL BALL:
Let’s all pick the same person, tie them up and get rid of them. MY reads haven’t changed much. Beeboy might have went down a bit. I forgot Urist in the first one but he is easy to forget.
Colin is obv town
Urist is most likely town
North is prob town
BEe-boy might be scum
Not mafia is, NotMafia
Star is mafia
Key is scum
Star was calling key scum. I don’t think that doeSn’t make either one town. My prediction is star will end up off the idea of killing key before we get to that point.
Obviously whoever targeted Colin made a mistake. I think they are the most obvious town with their game thought process.
So let’s get the ball rolling.
VOTE: Key
I was going for that juicy double contact, oh well. Maybe I shouldn’t have doubled down with the scummy phase two post, but after seeing phase one I felt I could get a double contact today from it.
I think if Screen or me are “contacted” again today we should take it as base level and eliminate them tomorrow. I say that knowing I’m an Agent. At least you’ll have pure content to read from if I get played by the Spies.
beeboy pocketed me <3
northsidegal voting me for saying random elimination is bad and then voting for someone looks like a scum push to me. I was under the impression that voting was mandatory and I think my intentions to avoid an unnecessary elimination were clear there. key certainly interpreted my intentions correctly.
lol @ “URIST’S KRYSTAL BALL” and I think he’s an Agent from the day two content.
Gut tells me Screen is Agent and StarV is Spy.
NotMafia is probably going to die for that and I have no confidence to call him Agent or Spy. I’m not going to vote there today, I wont be sad if he’s eliminated though.
Anyone else, nothing comes to mind about. Sorry I’m kind of pushed for time today.
Phase 3 Votes:
NotMafia (2):Key, beeboy
Key (2): StarV, Srceenplay
beeboy (1): NotMafia
Not Voting (3): northsidegal, Urist, Colin
Someone tried to contact northsidegal
Someone tried to contact NotMafia
Phase 4 ends 2019-02-26T05:00:00Z.
RESET
I realized the previous late post policy doesn’t work at all because of how targeting works.
Probably going to go with the “cross fingers and hope no one is super super late” line until next game/we figure out a late system that makes sense.
Please don’t abuse this and still try to get your posts in on time! If we start this (or any round) super late we’ll treat it like we treated P1.
hey.
starting this late at night, so excuse me if i miss something.
huh. didn’t actually notice srceenplay hiding messages though i feel a little dumb for not looking harder at those weird capital letters. i think in his second to last post the capital letters anagram out to “NSG CAN B NM TAKEN”? could be wrong, i also ignored two capital "I"s. first post letters i got “SANYPHHRYS” in order, no clue what it anagrams to, again ignored an “I”.
most recent post comes out to “L MY B U CUN BE N NM SKS SMOCS” in order, ignoring two "I"s.
i have no clue what any of this means, but i think he should probably die for it? i mean. it’s not very subtly although somehow i managed to miss it up until now, so i’m really not sure what to make of it. does he really go for something like this as spy??
a really simple conclusion i want to make is the fact that keychain noticed this makes her more likely to be spy, but it’s (like i just said) really simply.
neither keychain nor beeboy’s posts do much for me.
i wasn’t applying it to them, i was just saying that i’d be able to examine its effectiveness perhaps more easily in this kind of format.
star i still townread.
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urist i still want to townread but am beginning to doubt if this is the same urist that i’m thinking over at MS.
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colin’s attempting to get double contacted is really interesting. i like it as a strategy and actually townlean him for it, although i do concede that i could be getting tricked by just really clever scum here with an “intentionally scummy” gambit.
colin, i wasn’t voting you because you said RVS was potentially bad and then voted someone (that’s exactly what i did). i voted you because the only thing you seemed to care about was coordinating a lynch on someone else, and not actually spyhunting.
agent reads: star, colin, urist
spy poe: key, beeboy, srceenplay
no clue what to make of nm
yeah, that’s it, sorry. still not voting but i probably want to vote srceenplay. already basically nonexistant on time so just gonna submit first draft.
I feel like I haven’t allocated enough time today to think about this as much as I should considering the people voting me (kind of skimmed tbh) but oh well. If I get eliminated on this post make sure you get a spy next because I’ll lose for certain if you mess up and that would be sad.
Given the scumreads on me, I would expect spies to target me this round. The fact that they haven’t suggests spies don’t think I’m a spy.
The longer the game goes on, the higher the chance one spy contacts the other and potentially becomes more obvious to try and get the other to contact back.
beeboy bff for that nm vote but I’m looking elsewhere now
Colin might have transparently telegraphed that nsg contact to try and get her to contact back. I don’t have time to check but if that’s true I’m voting him next round
I feel like that NM contact was not from Srceenplay because if scum NM correctly contacted srceenplay while saying “come at me”, I would expect Srceenplay to contact him back (which may have happened) and NM to repeat the target (which didn’t).
From early on - if you’re an agent you don’t care if spies lose, you care if you win which means you want to guess correctly because we don’t win as a team in endgame. On reread this looks like spy manipulating endgame to make sure neither half guesses the right combination, which seems like it would be trivially easy to arrange.
Overall I prefer north as scum and I need to check up on colin so not voting here today
northsidegal: no need to be hurt, I haven’t reread what I said but it wasn’t the vote itself but the fact that that was the only significant thing you said/did. I think there’s a fair amount of strategising to do on the scum side and the lack of town strategy from you makes me feel you’re focused elsewhere. I agree the statement of “if scum did this I would think this” is not ideal but surely that’s not the only thing to say?
I think as a spy you have less motivation to fake thought and this applies to you in particular since iirc you find scum tedious in mafia, and you’re well aware
Little bit of a rush today but I think this vote has most chance of lining up with others
VOTE: northsidegal
I still just want to lynch NotMafia
VOTE: NotMafia
Someone can try and persuade me on why I am wrong but I think he is scum.
And we only need 1 scum lynch to win assuming your actually on the wagon.
Sorry if this is an underwelming way to play but idk. I don’t feel like putting a huge amount of effort into a post when catching a 2nd scum isn’t needed to win lol.
Ya’ll are looooooooserz for doing like strategy or whatever, just vote beeboy cos he’s a scum duck
@northsidegal I really don’t like your day 2 post, it somehow you’re deflecting from my reads without presenting any of your own, in fact, you claim at the end not to have strong enough reads to take a decision which seems like a direct contradiction…
The other thing is, I don’t understand why you have changed your mind on @colin or at least how to handle your read on @colin.
Anyway, looks scummy.
@key no change in my read, no reason to change my read. The only pause I give is that if you’re an spy, contacting @colin and @northsidegal seems oddly telegraphed to me. I don’t think that means anything though because I would say the same about either of my secondary reads…
@beeboy low loooooooow quality post, not indicative of alignment, but also no reason to change my read on you. I think jumping on notmafia is convenient, I think that discussing it first is the better option.
@notmafia Why?.. Just why?
@urist On point. Though I’m interested to know what you think of my day 2 post.
@Screenplay I’m kind of thinking that if you’re scum, your next contact is likely @starv or @urist, if it’s anyone else, I’m clearing you as town in my equation.
@colin Ooh baby. I like the part about lynching someone who was contacted twice as it reduces the odds of endgame occurring, however, there is a trade off, everytime someone is contacted, technically the raw probability of them flipping scum is reduced (not taking reads into account) as their alignment is now tied to someone else’s, because only one of the two contacted players are scum. I’m not sure that I would go for that trade-off on the first lynch unless I had a serious scum read.
For instance, if there is a 50% chance of 1 scum in a group of 3, 25% chance of 2 scum, 25% none that would mean the player scouted twice has a 16.7 % chance of being scum based on probability, previously 25% before 2nd contact, previously 40% before first contact. Because the player scouted twice can only be scum in the 50% chance that 1 of the 3 is scum :
Player 1 & Player 2 were contacted, only 1 scum can be between them, therefore, they are both reduced to 50% of their initial probability.
Now, Player 2 & Player 3 were contacted, they both drop by 50% of Player 2’s probability, however, now that Player 2 is less likely to be scum, the % chance for Player 1 to be scum goes up by 50%.
Let’s get down to business, starting today, there is absolutely no reason for someone not to vote. Let’s break it down:
2/8 shot 25%
I’m not scum
2/7 shot 28.57%
2 pairs contacted
2/5 * 3 40% (Not Contacted)
1/5 * 4 20% (Contacted)
So, at a base, if you haven’t been contacted, you should have a combination @starv, @urist, @beeboy and @key (remove yourself if included) at 40% chance each of being scum… These are amazing odds for town, you could run purely based on that and win a lot of mafia games.
Now, let’s add my town reads to this (you can add your own) – I have 2
@urist, @colin I’m getting town vibes from.
That leaves me with:
3x 50% (@key, @beeboy, @screenplay)
2x 25% (@Notmafia, @northsidegal)
There is 0 reason to not vote. If we successfully lynch today @Key (and if this somehow turns out to be incorrect, and assuming scum don’t make contact tomorrow) @beeboy next (if scum make contact at this point, everyone remaining has a minimum of 50% chance to win – unless they have no successful town reads, in which case they lose either way - so what does it matter?).
I’m voting @Key today and tomorrow, if you vote anyone other than your best read out of @Key, @urist @starv or @beeboy, then I don’t know what you’re doing.
Back to reads:
@northsidegal & @notmafia are both good contacts for @screenplay
@northsidegal good contact for @key
@beeboy could be randomly picking and/or framing them as he was educated on strategy that he’s not sharing, that is also what worries me about my town reads, but I have to commit to something…
My suggested kill order is @Key, @beeboy, @northsidegal… If you town read @urist and @colin, you have no reason to oppose me, even if you don’t town read me because you would just win anyway. Statistical probability could change when the contacts are revealed, but I’m going to stick with @key because we need to decide a day in advance.
I’m also wondering about @key’s shout to colin “from mini mafia” in the first post, it seems to pile onto an attempt at day 2 contact.
Last minute edit: I just realized that we have a hard cap at 8 days. Every time a player is contacted, the other scum player knows that’s not the player they’re looking for, they need to go through a max of 7… So it’s important that we get this done quickly. The scum would know exactly who each other are while we don’t actually know who contacted who unless they are always put in order… That would be useful to know @OP.
VOTE: Key
PREDICTION AAR:
Colin and nsg didn’t vote, meaning I can’t act condescending to them. StarV barely posted any theory. Good job. beeboy chose not to share any feelings past his feelings for NotMafia. NotMafia is doing a good job of playing the imbecile and making me hate him. I look like an ass.At least I got one right!
nsg’s post is meh. Her responses to Key are fine, but her post lacks bite. It doesn’t read like somebody who is actively trying to find a spy. The fact that she doesn’t even acknowledge NotMafia and the srceenplay contact thing gives me bad vibes, but she isn’t scum with NotMafia at the very least.
I’m not the same Urist from this mafiascam website btw.
Key and beeboy fall into the same pile for me. I don’t think that either of them would have voted for NotMafia if they were going to try to contact him in the same night, especially with the potentially high chance of him being lynched, UNLESS they were the one who contacted Srceen and knew that NotMafia’s full of shit. As a result of this, it’s really unlikely that both Key and beeboy are scum together. I believe that Key is more likely of the two of them to be scum there, just based on play.
I realize that I’m basically working from the assumption that Key is scum and worming my way into a spot where I can comfortably call Key scum. 
I think that the correct play here is to lynch NotMafia. If he does flip agent, I believe that the chances of one of beeboy and Key being a spy are through the roof, since they’re the only ones who could potentially know that NotMafia did NOT target Srceenplay and could be going for an easy lynch.
It’s possible that Srceen is scum. If NotMafia is an agent, I’d say it’s Srceen and Key most likely. If Srceen is a spy, the guy who targeted him would know because he was targeted in the first phase. I really don’t think there’s any chance of either StarV or Colin being scum at this point.
I don’t really have the time to do predictions at this point unfortunately. I will be very surprised if both a) NotMafia is an agent, and b) Srceenplay is not contacted again this night. I’m super invested in this theory that either NotMafia is a spy or Srceen is scum with one of Key and beeboy.
VOTE: NotMafia
VOTE: Key
I can not be more suspicious of northsidegal, simply because one of the things I’d consider doing as a Spy would be finding a reason to vote for someone and then contacting the same person. It’s a fair way to signal.
That paranoia aside, it’s not all bad. I particularly like, “oh great, getting shaded again …” I felt the tone of that was townie.
I like StarV more today. Putting the three posts together helps. I’m starting to understand the thought process. Something still feels, “not quite right” but I’m hoping that the feeling fades or I can quantify it if it grows over the next few phases. I’m definitely not comfortable voting Star at the moment.
I’m also losing my gut read on Screen as I don’t think may phase 1&2 scream “obv town” and I don’t think I’ve shown a lot of “game thought process”. However, Screen does have a pretty good read on me in video mafia and he may be feeling confident that he can figure me out easily here.
I like beeboy straight shooting for Not Mafia. I don’t think it’s alignment indicative, but I like it.
I love Urist and I’m completely in that pocket.
I’m not a fan of Key. I’m also slightly surprised there have been no contact attempts there. If Key’s not contacted in this phase I think I want to eliminate Key. I find it very hard to believe that two Spies have not tried to contact Key in their first three contacts given the posts so far. Now that I’ve typed that out it feels stupid, but I think there’s something in people who are being widely scum-read or at least not town-read not being contacted. There’s only half the chance for them to be contacted if they are a Spy after all.
I kind of want Not Mafia gone for chocolate teapot reasons.
I’m going to hold my vote for now. Tomorrow onwards I’m going to start actively looking at making cases to build towards our first elimination though.
Phase 4 Votes:
NotMafia (2): beeboy, Urist
Key (2): StarV, Srceenplay
northsidegal (1): Key
Not Voting (3): northsidegal, NotMafia, Colin
Someone tried to contact StarV
Someone tried to contact Key
The order contact attempts are shown is random.
A list of all contact attempts has been added to the OP. (You can jump directly to the op by clicking on the date at top of the topic timeline, in this case Feb 21, or with the appropriate link in the header i-button.)
Phase 5 ends 2019-02-27T05:00:00Z.
If anyone will have trouble with the deadline because of the late start today let me know.
RESET